Is there a Speaker in the House?

Looks like the Republicans might have a slim majority in the next Congress - and if they are lucky, it might be as large as the Democrats' current 5 votes.

But what's going to be the largest voting bloc in the new House? Certainly the conservative and moderate and mildly progressive Democrats! Under Nancy Pelosi's leadership, they are more numerous and better disciplined than any of these Republican factions -

• Trumpist personality cultists backing Trump
• Trumpist personality cultists backing DeSantis
• Trumpist personality cultists backing somebody else (Cruz, Hawley, ...)
• Performers mainly interested in getting on Fox
• QAnons and other fringe fantasists
• Rule of law and traditional Republicans targeted by Trump

And the biggest trouble-makers of all, who already have a 1960's-style list of "non-negotiable demands" -

• The Freischütz-macht-Freiheit Caucus, mainly interested in defaulting on the Federal debt, shutting down the government, and investigating, impeaching, and removing Biden, Harris, and as many members of the administration as possible. If successful, the Speaker would become President, so they want to make sure it's somebody they like. Of course, the probable Democratic majority in the Senate might foil them for the next two years.

There's some partial overlap among the factions listed above. Though they all can be counted on AGAINST Nancy Pelosi and any other Democrat for Speaker, none of them can be counted on to support one another. Some blame McCarthy for the "red wave" washout, as if he were responsible for the Roe v Wade reversal or for Trump's making himself and election denial the biggest issues in the election.

McCarthy wants to be Speaker as badly as Clay wanted to be President. And he might have no more success. But at least McCarthy has never painted himself into a corner by saying "I had rather be right than Speaker".

McCarthy believes in "harnessing the power of our entire conference" but Pelosi has her doubts. QAnons and insurrectionists too?

It's hard to see House Republicans uniting FOR anybody, but McCarthy has the best claim for now because of the dark money that flows through him from megadonors to candidates.

Trump announced his requirements on McCarthy, meaning no praise for DeSantis and no bipartisanship?

Can McCarthy avoid the fate of Boehner and Ryan?

• Difficulties loom with a new class of election deniers who don't owe him anything.
• And the old class of bomb-throwers aren't much better.

Still, McCarthy's best bet might be to hope to have one LESS than a majority. Then nobody will bother trying to replace him as (minority) leader - as long as he keeps doling out the dark campaign money.

The Speaker doesn't need to be a member of the House. A non-member can be elected, though won't have a vote. If Democrats are a slight minority and can't elect a Democrat Speaker, they might be willing to give an edge to one of the least objectionable Republicans in order to avoid something worse. That would exclude all of the current Republican House leadership - Republicans won't find any Democratic support for a Trump endorser or endorsee, or election denier, or insurrection apologist.

But what about

• Liz Cheney
• Adam Kinzinger
• Mike Pence
• Brian Fitzpatrick
• Paul Ryan
• John Boehner
• Evan McMullin

Consider -

• The first three stood up AGAINST Trump and personality cult, and FOR rule of law, when it mattered most.
• Cheney and Kinzinger were on the Jan 6 committee.
• Cheney and Pence probably harbor presidential ambitions.
• Fitzpatrick is Republican co-chair of the House Problem Solvers Caucus along with Democrat co-chair Josh Gottheimer - both will continue in the new Congress. They were able to co-chair effectively - could they agree on a way to informally share responsibility if Fitzpatrick were Speaker?
• Former Speakers Ryan and Boehner have been there and done that, and might not be willing to serve another (probably short) term.
• McMullin has never been elected to public office so doesn't owe any current legislators much.

And don't forget the following who - along with Cheney and Kinzinger - voted to impeach Trump after Jan 6. Some of them might make good Speakers.

• WA Jamie Herrera Beutler - primaried by Kent, who lost in the general
• OH Anthony Gonzalez - retired
• NY John Katko - retired
• MI Peter Meijer - primaried by Gibbs with Democratic help, who lost in the general
• WA Dan Newhouse - re-elected to WA-4
• SC Tom Rice - primaried by Fry, who won in the general
• MI Fred Upton - retired
• CA David Valadao - leading but not called in CA-22

None of these will ever be acceptable to the Trumpists, insurrectionists, and fantasists in the GOP. But if all the Democrats get behind them, they'll only need a few GOP members to join them.

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