Tossups in 2024 Election

Which races are close enough to decide the balance of power in the next Congress?


This web page is an update of the corresponding page for 2022. So most of the background references are from 2022 - it mostly hasn't changed that much. But the results in the tables are from 2024.


Why are so few elections genuinely contested?

How come "money is the mother's milk of politics"?


After the election

Election results here will be updated from time to time as races are called - with who called them, the estimated D-R percentages, the vote spread,and how much I donated. Note that calls are sometimes premature - I look at
 AP
 CNN
 Fox
 Washington Post
Here's how the AP calls elections. So far, nobody has made a too-early bad call on any of these close races.

Races that went D will get a blue background, races that went R a red. Races that went against the predicted direction with be in bold type. Races with a final Odds of "Tossup" don't have a predicted direction.

Pollsters seem to be doing better than in 2016. May they continue to improve!

I hope that all losing candidates, after taking all reasonable steps to verify close outcomes, will graciously concede, for a peaceful transition.

I hope that all candidates, winning and losing, who based their campaigns on lies and rumors, whether spoken by themselves or by others, will repent and make restitution by affirming their future devotion to the Enlightenment ideals of America's founders in all future political activity.

And if that fails, it might be time for regional federalism, so that those that crave minority rule can enjoy it - without making the rest of us pay for it.


To whom to contribute?

With only a few elections contested, and hundreds of millions of dollars going into them, are you wondering which candidates to support for the next Congress - either with money or volunteer time? If you can afford political contributions, do you wonder where to send them where they will do some good? Maybe there aren't any serious contests in your state and district. You could donate to national organizations

but maybe you've wondered how good they are at triage - separating out those candidates that are sure to win or sure to lose, in order to donate where the outcome is truly uncertain and a donation might make a difference. National committees sometimes feel pressure to donate to campaigns that are likely to win or likely to lose. Maybe you should leave those to the megadonor investors. Small donors have often unknowingly thrown money away on unwinnable or unlosable contests.

In 2016 the professional pollsters were often fooled by "independent" or "undecided" voters who had already made up their minds for Trump and Trumpists but didn't want to say so to pollsters who might be liberals. Maybe the pollsters are more discerning now. Maybe not. They offer many caveats. They are all extrapolating from an inaccurate past to an uncertain future.

How can you tell if you are investing wisely or throwing money away? If you have a verifiable method, you have a brilliant career ahead in political consulting. If you just CLAIM to have a verifiable method, you're just like all the others.

In the following, you can find some "Tossups", "leaning Democratic", and "leaning Republican". These are the races that might be worth your money or time.

Tossups might be productive choices, but the leaning might be more of a gamble. Perhaps you should leave the leaning to the megadonor investors. But these classifications are changing constantly - the next court decision, indictment, economic news, pandemic, or foreign policy reversal can change everything - as has already happened several times this summer. So keep checking!

Still, if there are any truly undecided voters left, they will probably decide on the basis of gas prices and inflation on election day, and blame Biden and Democrats, even though inflation is global and in most countries much worse than in America, and even though the GOP doesn't have any better ideas for fighting inflation, or for the recession that might well follow the election - other than, of course, more tax cuts for billionaire megadonors.

Tables of close races

Following Odds data from 270towin.com as of election eve, 4 Nov 2024. Some differences of opinion are noted thus:


C- Cook Political Report 2024 Ratings
F- Fox News Power Rankings
S- Sabato's Crystal Ball 2024 Ratings

You can find each pundit's predictions at 270towin under "2024 Pundit Forecasts".

As a placeholder, "Margin" is the amount donated to the candidate. Margin of vote will go there after the election results are final.

The opposition research under "About" dates from 2022, though little has changed in most cases. Endorsed by Trump! data is for 4 Nov 2024.

Close races for state governor

Odds
4 Nov
State Candidate Website Margin Opponent About
4 Nov Predicted Tossup by 270towin
Tossup
S-Lean R 4 Nov
NH Craig https://joycecraig.org/ Called for Ayotte
45-53 @ 91%
$120
bad bet - not close
Ayotte

Close races for US Senate

Odds
4 Nov
State Candidate Website Margin Opponent About
4 Nov Predicted Tossup by 270towin
Tossup
S- Lean R 4 Nov
OH Brown https://www.sherrodbrown.com/ Called for Moreno
46-50 @ 95%
$200
unlucky bet
Moreno Endorsed by Trump!
4 Nov Predicted D by 270towin
Lean D AZ Gallego https://gallegoforarizona.com/
50-48 @ 62%
$100
Lake Endorsed by Trump!
Lean D
C- Tossup 30 Oct
F- Tossup 30 Oct
MI Slotkin https://elissaslotkin.org/
48.5-48.4 @ 95%
$100
Rogers Endorsed by Trump!
Lean D NV Rosen https://www.rosenfornevada.com/
47.2-47.3 @ 88%
$100
Brown Endorsed by Trump!
Lean D
C- Tossup 30 Oct
F- Tossup 30 Oct
PA Casey https://bobcasey.com/
48.2-49.2 @ 96%
$100
McCormick
Lean D
C- Tossup 30 Oct
F- Tossup 30 Oct
WI Baldwin https://www.tammybaldwin.com/
49.3-48.6 @ 99%
$100
Hovde Endorsed by Trump!
4 Nov Predicted R by 270towin
Likely R FL MuCarsel-Powell https://www.debbieforflorida.com/ Called for Scott
43-56 at 98%
$100
bad bet - not close
Scott Endorsed by Trump!
Lean R MT Tester https://jontester.com/ Called for Sheehy
45-53 @ 86%
$100
bad bet - not close
Sheehy Endorsed by Trump!
Lean R
F- Likely R 30 Oct
TX Allred https://colinallred.com/ Called for Cruz
45-53 @ 96%
$100
bad bet - not close
Cruz Endorsed by Trump!

Close races for US House of Representatives - California

Odds
4 Nov
District Candidate Website Margin Opponent About
4 Nov Predicted Tossup by 270towin
Tossup
F- Lean D 30 Oct
S- Lean D 4 Nov
CA-13 Gray https://www.adamgrayforcongress.com/ 49-51 @ 48%
$200
Duarte not exactly a small family farmer
Tossup
S- Lean R 30 Oct
CA-22 Salas https://www.rudysalas.com/ 45-55 @ 52%
$200
Valadao Voted to impeach Trump.
All praise and honor for doing the obvious right thing
at the moment of crisis,
to be part of the solution instead of part of the problem!
But in Congress he will caucus with the Trumpist Dixiecrat GOP,
and so remain part of the problem

Case against Valadao
Tossup
F- Lean D 30 Oct
S- Lean D 4 Nov
CA-27 Whitesides https://www.georgewhitesides.com/ 49-51 @ 65%
$200
Garcia Election denier!
Case against Garcia
likes QAnon, calls Capitol Police Gestapo
Tossup
S- Lean R 30 Oct
CA-41 Rollins https://willrollinsforcongress.com/
49.5-50.5 @ 59%
$200
Calvert Endorsed by Trump!
Election denier!
Tossup
S- Lean R 4 Nov
CA-45 Tran https://www.derektranforcongress.com/ 48-53 @ 63%
$200
Steel Endorsed by Trump!
life begins at conception

Case against Steel
4 Nov Predicted D by 270towin
Lean D CA-47 Min https://davemin.com/ 49.4-50.6 @ 66%
$200
Baugh Endorsed by Trump!
Election denier!
Case against Baugh
quite a criminal record


Close races for US House of Representatives - other states

Odds
4 Nov
District Candidate Website Margin Opponent About
4 Nov Predicted Tossup by 270towin
Tossup
F- Lean D 30 Oct
S- Lean R 4 Nov
AK Peltola https://www.marypeltola.com/ 45-50 @ 76%
$40
Begich Endorsed by Trump!
Tossup
S- Lean R 4 Nov
AZ-1 Shah https://www.amishforarizona.com/ 49-51 @ 60%
$40
Schweikert Endorsed by Trump!
Election denier!
Tossup
S- Lean R 4 Nov
AZ-6 Engel https://www.engelforarizona.com/ 49.8-48.1 @ 56%
$40
Ciscomani Endorsed by Trump!
Tossup
S- Lean D 4 Nov
CO-8 Caraveo https://www.caraveoforcongress.com/ 49.5-48.0 @ 74%
$40
Evans Endorsed by Trump!
Tossup
S- Lean D 4 Nov
IA-1 Bohannan https://www.bohannanforcongress.com/ 50-50 @ 97%
$40
Miller-Meeks
Tossup
F- Lean R 30 Oct
S- Lean R 30 Oct
IA-3 Baccam https://lanonbaccam.com/ Called for Nunn
48-52 @ 99%
$50
unlucky bet
Nunn Endorsed by Trump!
Remarkable candidate!
Case against Nunn
Tossup
S- Lean D 4 Nov
ME-2 Golden https://jaredgoldenforcongress.com/ 50.8-49.2 @ 72%
$40
Theriault Endorsed by Trump!
Tossup
C- Lean R 4 Nov
S- Lean R 4 Nov
MI-7 Hertel https://www.hertelformichigan.com/ Called for Barrett
47-50 @ 99%
$40
unlucky bet
Barrett Endorsed by Trump!
Case against Barrett
Tossup
S- Lean D 4 Nov
MI-8 Rivet https://kristenmcdonaldrivet.com/ Called for Rivet
51-45 @ 99%
$40
lucky bet
Junge Endorsed by Trump!
Tossup
S- Lean D 30 Oct
NC-1 Davis https://votedondavis.com/ 49.5-47.9 @ 99%
$40
Buckhout Endorsed by Trump!
Tossup
S- Lean D 4 Nov
NY-19 Riley https://joshrileyforcongress.com/home/ $40 Molinaro Endorsed by Trump!
Case against Molinaro
enjoys the perks of office
Tossup
S- Lean D 4 Nov
OR-5 Bynum https://www.janellebynum.com/ 47.7-45.5 @ 69%
$40
Chavez-DeRemer Case against Chavez-DeRemer
Tossup
S- Lean D 4 Nov
PA-8 Cartwright https://cartwrightcongress.com/
How Cartwright thrives in Trump country
$40 Bresnahan Endorsed by Trump!
Tossup
S- Lean R 30 Oct
PA-10 Stelson https://janellestelson.com/ $40 Perry Endorsed by Trump!
Tossup
S- Lean D 30 Oct
VA-7 Vindman https://vindmanforcongress.com/ 51-49 @ 99%
$40
good bet?
Anderson Endorsed by Trump!
Tossup
S- Lean R 4 Nov
WA-3 Perez https://marieforcongress.com/ 52-48 @ 59%
$40
Kent Endorsed by Trump!
Election denier!
4 Nov Predicted D by 270towin
Lean D CT-5 Hayes https://jahanahayes.com/
Debate report
$10 Logan Case against Logan
Likely D
S- Lean D 30 Oct
IL-17 Eric Sorensen https://www.ericforillinois.com/ $10 McGraw
Likely D
S- Lean D 30 Oct
IN-1 Frank Mrvan https://mrvanforcongress.com/ $10 Niemeyer Endorsed by Trump!
Likely D
C- Lean D 30 Oct
F- Lean D 30 Oct
S- Lean D 30 Oct
MN-2 Angie Craig https://angiecraig.com/ Called for Craig
55-42 @ 88% $10
bad bet - not close
Teirab Endorsed by Trump!
Lean D
F- Tossup 4 Nov
S- Lean D 30 Oct
NE-2 Vargas https://www.vargasfornebraska.com/ $50 Bacon Endorsed by Trump!
Lean D
C- Tossup 30 Oct
F- Tossup 30 Oct
NM-2 Vasquez https://gabeforcongress.com/ $10 Herrell Endorsed by Trump!
Election denier!
Case against Herrell
never met an oil well she didn't like
Lean D
C- Tossup 30 Oct
F- Tossup 30 Oct
NY-4 Gillen https://lauragillen.com/ $10 D'Esposito Endorsed by Trump!
Lean D
S- Likely D 4 Nov
NY-18 Ryan https://www.patryanforcongress.com/ Called for Ryan
56-44 @ 93%
$10
bad bet - not close
Esposito Endorsed by Trump!
Lean D NY-22 Mannion https://www.mannionforny.com/ $10 Williams Endorsed by Trump!
No government experience!
Case against Williams
Lean D
F- Tossup 30 Oct
OH-9 Kaptur https://marcykaptur.com/ $10 Merrin Endorsed by Trump!
Lean D
F- Tossup 30 Oct
OH-13 Sykes https://www.emiliasykesforcongress.com/ $10 Coughlin Endorsed by Trump!
Lean D
C- Tossup 30 Oct
PA-7 Wild https://wildforcongress.com/ $25 Mackenzie Endorsed by Trump!
Lean D PA-17 Deluzio https://www.chrisforpa.com/ Called for Deluzio
53-46 @ 93%
$10
bad bet - not close
Mercuri
Likely D
S- Lean D 30 Oct
F- Lean D 30 Oct
TX-28 Henry Cuellar https://www.henrycuellar.com/ $10 Furman
Lean D TX-34 Gonzales https://vicentegonzalez.com/ $10 Flores Endorsed by Trump!
Election denier!
4 Nov Predicted R by 270towin
Lean R
F- Likely R 30 Oct
NJ-7 Altman https://www.suealtman.com/ $10 Kean
Lean R NY-17 Jones https://www.mondaireforcongress.com/ $40 Lawler Expensive race!

Look up other states here - https://www.270towin.com/2024-house-election/

There are some remarkable House candidates!


Endorsed by Trump! is all you need to know - being endorsed by Trump means the candidate endorses the actions of Trump and other Trumpist candidates as models for future Trumpist elected officials -


Why are so few elections genuinely contested?

How many 2024 elections are at least somewhat contested?
Office Elections Contested
US Senate 34 8
US House 435 43
State Governor 11 2

Self-sorting populations are part of the reason for uncontested elections.

But uncontested elections are a pillar of minority rule, which depends on gerrymandering to produce one-party districts and one-party states. Are open primaries the solution to one-party rule?

For many offices in many states, the only election that matters is the primary of the dominant party. That winner is sure to win the general election. So only the voters in that primary matter. In those districts, the winner doesn't matter much; it will be one or another of the dominant party's extreme candidates supporting minority rule (whether they know it or not). Megadonors don't have to invest in the general election campaign much. In fact, many of those candidates run unopposed. Gruber and Kresky argue for open primaries, where anybody can vote in whichever primary he wants. That doesn't seem like the best approach.

Why not let the parties run their primaries or caucuses any way they want - on their own dime. The important thing is to repeal "sore-loser" laws so people who run and lose in the primary can try again in the general election.

And that general election must be ranked-choice so that a particular point of view doesn't lose just because it's too popular and attracts too many candidates. That way every voter has a say as to who he'd prefer AND who he'd accept if he can't get his first choice, and no voter wastes a vote because there are too many similar candidates.

As for that other pillar of minority rule that contributes to uncontested elections - gerrymandering - multimember districts, WHEN combined with ranked-choice voting, insure that sizable minorities that choose to vote as a bloc are guaranteed some representation.


Money is the mother's milk of politics

Tired of one-dollar-one vote "democracy"?

Rather donate your money AGAINST unlimited dark campaign money? Check out these organizations:

Ending unlimited dark campaign money is very popular with almost all ordinary voters, but NOT with campaign megadonors who invest in legislators, and NOT with the legislators those megadonors invest in - Mtich McConnell said that the day President Bush signed McCain's bill into law was "the worst day of my political life".


More on political scrapbook at
https://www.political-scrapbook.net/about.html


There is nothing to buy or sign up for on this website.
Please report dead links, typos, and factual errors to
web-report at sonic dot net

Visitor count for this page starting 30 October 2024: .
2024-tossups.html 1.13 24/11/06