This web page is an update of the corresponding page for 2022. So most of the background references are from 2022 - it mostly hasn't changed that much. But the results in the tables are from 2024.
Why are so few elections genuinely contested?
How come "money is the mother's milk of politics"?
AP CNN Fox Washington PostHere's how the AP calls elections. So far, nobody has made a too-early bad call on any of these close races.
Races that went D will get a blue background, races that went R a red. Races that went against the predicted direction with be in bold type. Races with a final Odds of "Tossup" don't have a predicted direction.
Pollsters seem to be doing better than in 2016. May they continue to improve!
I hope that all losing candidates, after taking all reasonable steps to verify close outcomes, will graciously concede, for a peaceful transition.
I hope that all candidates, winning and losing, who based their campaigns on lies and rumors, whether spoken by themselves or by others, will repent and make restitution by affirming their future devotion to the Enlightenment ideals of America's founders in all future political activity.
And if that fails, it might be time for regional federalism, so that those that crave minority rule can enjoy it - without making the rest of us pay for it.
With only a few elections contested, and hundreds of millions of dollars going into them, are you wondering which candidates to support for the next Congress - either with money or volunteer time? If you can afford political contributions, do you wonder where to send them where they will do some good? Maybe there aren't any serious contests in your state and district. You could donate to national organizations
but maybe you've wondered how good they are at triage - separating out those candidates that are sure to win or sure to lose, in order to donate where the outcome is truly uncertain and a donation might make a difference. National committees sometimes feel pressure to donate to campaigns that are likely to win or likely to lose. Maybe you should leave those to the megadonor investors. Small donors have often unknowingly thrown money away on unwinnable or unlosable contests.In 2016 the professional pollsters were often fooled by "independent" or "undecided" voters who had already made up their minds for Trump and Trumpists but didn't want to say so to pollsters who might be liberals. Maybe the pollsters are more discerning now. Maybe not. They offer many caveats. They are all extrapolating from an inaccurate past to an uncertain future.
How can you tell if you are investing wisely or throwing money away? If you have a verifiable method, you have a brilliant career ahead in political consulting. If you just CLAIM to have a verifiable method, you're just like all the others.
In the following, you can find some "Tossups", "leaning Democratic", and "leaning Republican". These are the races that might be worth your money or time.
Tossups might be productive choices, but the leaning might be more of a gamble. Perhaps you should leave the leaning to the megadonor investors. But these classifications are changing constantly - the next court decision, indictment, economic news, pandemic, or foreign policy reversal can change everything - as has already happened several times this summer. So keep checking!
Still, if there are any truly undecided voters left, they will probably decide on the basis of gas prices and inflation on election day, and blame Biden and Democrats, even though inflation is global and in most countries much worse than in America, and even though the GOP doesn't have any better ideas for fighting inflation, or for the recession that might well follow the election - other than, of course, more tax cuts for billionaire megadonors.
Following Odds data from 270towin.com as of election eve, 4 Nov 2024. Some differences of opinion are noted thus:
C- Cook Political Report 2024 Ratings F- Fox News Power Rankings S- Sabato's Crystal Ball 2024 RatingsYou can find each pundit's predictions at 270towin under "2024 Pundit Forecasts".
As a placeholder, "Margin" is the amount donated to the candidate. Margin of vote will go there after the election results are final.
The opposition research under "About" dates from 2022, though little
has changed in most cases.
Endorsed by Trump!
data is for 4 Nov 2024.
Odds
4 Nov | State | Candidate | Website | Margin | Opponent | About |
4 Nov Predicted Tossup by 270towin | ||||||
Tossup
S-Lean R 4 Nov | NH | Craig | https://joycecraig.org/ |
Called for Ayotte
45-53 @ 91% $120 bad bet - not close | Ayotte |
Odds
4 Nov | State | Candidate | Website | Margin | Opponent | About |
4 Nov Predicted Tossup by 270towin | ||||||
Tossup
S- Lean R 4 Nov | OH | Brown | https://www.sherrodbrown.com/ |
Called for Moreno
46-50 @ 95% $200 unlucky bet | Moreno | Endorsed by Trump! |
4 Nov Predicted D by 270towin | ||||||
Lean D | AZ | Gallego | https://gallegoforarizona.com/ |
50-48 @ 62% $100 | Lake | Endorsed by Trump! |
Lean D
C- Tossup 30 Oct F- Tossup 30 Oct | MI | Slotkin | https://elissaslotkin.org/ |
48.5-48.4 @ 95% $100 | Rogers | Endorsed by Trump! |
Lean D | NV | Rosen | https://www.rosenfornevada.com/ |
47.2-47.3 @ 88% $100 | Brown | Endorsed by Trump! |
Lean D
C- Tossup 30 Oct F- Tossup 30 Oct | PA | Casey | https://bobcasey.com/ |
48.2-49.2 @ 96% $100 | McCormick | |
Lean D
C- Tossup 30 Oct F- Tossup 30 Oct | WI | Baldwin | https://www.tammybaldwin.com/ |
49.3-48.6 @ 99% $100 | Hovde | Endorsed by Trump! |
4 Nov Predicted R by 270towin | ||||||
Likely R | FL | MuCarsel-Powell | https://www.debbieforflorida.com/ |
Called for Scott
43-56 at 98% $100 bad bet - not close | Scott | Endorsed by Trump! |
Lean R | MT | Tester | https://jontester.com/ |
Called for Sheehy
45-53 @ 86% $100 bad bet - not close | Sheehy | Endorsed by Trump! |
Lean R
F- Likely R 30 Oct | TX | Allred | https://colinallred.com/ |
Called for Cruz
45-53 @ 96% $100 bad bet - not close | Cruz | Endorsed by Trump! |
Odds
4 Nov | District | Candidate | Website | Margin | Opponent | About | |
4 Nov Predicted Tossup by 270towin | |||||||
Tossup
F- Lean D 30 Oct S- Lean D 4 Nov | CA-13 | Gray | https://www.adamgrayforcongress.com/ |
49-51 @ 48%
$200 | Duarte | not exactly a small family farmer | |
Tossup
S- Lean R 30 Oct | CA-22 | Salas | https://www.rudysalas.com/ |
45-55 @ 52%
$200 | Valadao | Voted to impeach Trump.
All praise and honor for doing the obvious right thing at the moment of crisis, to be part of the solution instead of part of the problem! But in Congress he will caucus with the Trumpist Dixiecrat GOP, and so remain part of the problem Case against Valadao | |
Tossup
F- Lean D 30 Oct S- Lean D 4 Nov | CA-27 | Whitesides | https://www.georgewhitesides.com/ |
49-51 @ 65%
$200 | Garcia |
Election denier!
Case against Garcia likes QAnon, calls Capitol Police Gestapo | |
Tossup
S- Lean R 30 Oct | CA-41 | Rollins | https://willrollinsforcongress.com/ |
49.5-50.5 @ 59% $200 | Calvert |
Endorsed by Trump!
Election denier! | |
Tossup
S- Lean R 4 Nov | CA-45 | Tran | https://www.derektranforcongress.com/ |
48-53 @ 63%
$200 | Steel |
Endorsed by Trump!
life begins at conception Case against Steel | |
4 Nov Predicted D by 270towin | |||||||
Lean D | CA-47 | Min | https://davemin.com/ |
49.4-50.6 @ 66%
$200 | Baugh |
Endorsed by Trump!
Election denier! Case against Baugh quite a criminal record |
Odds
4 Nov | District | Candidate | Website | Margin | Opponent | About | |
4 Nov Predicted Tossup by 270towin | |||||||
Tossup
F- Lean D 30 Oct S- Lean R 4 Nov | AK | Peltola | https://www.marypeltola.com/ |
45-50 @ 76%
$40 | Begich | Endorsed by Trump! | |
Tossup
S- Lean R 4 Nov | AZ-1 | Shah | https://www.amishforarizona.com/ |
49-51 @ 60%
$40 | Schweikert |
Endorsed by Trump!
Election denier! | |
Tossup
S- Lean R 4 Nov | AZ-6 | Engel | https://www.engelforarizona.com/ |
49.8-48.1 @ 56%
$40 | Ciscomani | Endorsed by Trump! | |
Tossup
S- Lean D 4 Nov | CO-8 | Caraveo | https://www.caraveoforcongress.com/ |
49.5-48.0 @ 74%
$40 | Evans | Endorsed by Trump! | |
Tossup
S- Lean D 4 Nov | IA-1 | Bohannan | https://www.bohannanforcongress.com/ |
50-50 @ 97%
$40 | Miller-Meeks | ||
Tossup
F- Lean R 30 Oct S- Lean R 30 Oct | IA-3 | Baccam | https://lanonbaccam.com/ |
Called for Nunn
48-52 @ 99% $50 unlucky bet | Nunn |
Endorsed by Trump!
Remarkable candidate! Case against Nunn | |
Tossup
S- Lean D 4 Nov | ME-2 | Golden | https://jaredgoldenforcongress.com/ |
50.8-49.2 @ 72%
$40 | Theriault | Endorsed by Trump! | |
Tossup
C- Lean R 4 Nov S- Lean R 4 Nov | MI-7 | Hertel | https://www.hertelformichigan.com/ |
Called for Barrett
47-50 @ 99% $40 unlucky bet | Barrett |
Endorsed by Trump!
Case against Barrett | |
Tossup
S- Lean D 4 Nov | MI-8 | Rivet | https://kristenmcdonaldrivet.com/ |
Called for Rivet
51-45 @ 99% $40 lucky bet | Junge | Endorsed by Trump! | |
Tossup
S- Lean D 30 Oct | NC-1 | Davis | https://votedondavis.com/ |
49.5-47.9 @ 99%
$40 | Buckhout | Endorsed by Trump! | |
Tossup
S- Lean D 4 Nov | NY-19 | Riley | https://joshrileyforcongress.com/home/ | $40 | Molinaro |
Endorsed by Trump!
Case against Molinaro enjoys the perks of office | |
Tossup
S- Lean D 4 Nov | OR-5 | Bynum | https://www.janellebynum.com/ |
47.7-45.5 @ 69%
$40 | Chavez-DeRemer | Case against Chavez-DeRemer | |
Tossup
S- Lean D 4 Nov | PA-8 | Cartwright | https://cartwrightcongress.com/
How Cartwright thrives in Trump country | $40 | Bresnahan | Endorsed by Trump! | |
Tossup
S- Lean R 30 Oct | PA-10 | Stelson | https://janellestelson.com/ | $40 | Perry | Endorsed by Trump! | |
Tossup
S- Lean D 30 Oct | VA-7 | Vindman | https://vindmanforcongress.com/ |
51-49 @ 99%
$40 good bet? | Anderson | Endorsed by Trump! | |
Tossup
S- Lean R 4 Nov | WA-3 | Perez | https://marieforcongress.com/ |
52-48 @ 59%
$40 | Kent |
Endorsed by Trump!
Election denier! | |
4 Nov Predicted D by 270towin | |||||||
Lean D | CT-5 | Hayes | https://jahanahayes.com/
Debate report | $10 | Logan | Case against Logan | |
Likely D
S- Lean D 30 Oct | IL-17 | Eric Sorensen | https://www.ericforillinois.com/ | $10 | McGraw | ||
Likely D
S- Lean D 30 Oct | IN-1 | Frank Mrvan | https://mrvanforcongress.com/ | $10 | Niemeyer |
Endorsed by Trump!
| |
Likely D
C- Lean D 30 Oct F- Lean D 30 Oct S- Lean D 30 Oct | MN-2 | Angie Craig | https://angiecraig.com/ |
Called for Craig
55-42 @ 88% $10 bad bet - not close | Teirab | Endorsed by Trump! | |
Lean D
F- Tossup 4 Nov S- Lean D 30 Oct | NE-2 | Vargas | https://www.vargasfornebraska.com/ | $50 | Bacon | Endorsed by Trump! | |
Lean D
C- Tossup 30 Oct F- Tossup 30 Oct | NM-2 | Vasquez | https://gabeforcongress.com/ | $10 | Herrell |
Endorsed by Trump!
Election denier! Case against Herrell never met an oil well she didn't like | |
Lean D
C- Tossup 30 Oct F- Tossup 30 Oct | NY-4 | Gillen | https://lauragillen.com/ | $10 | D'Esposito | Endorsed by Trump! | |
Lean D
S- Likely D 4 Nov | NY-18 | Ryan | https://www.patryanforcongress.com/ |
Called for Ryan
56-44 @ 93% $10 bad bet - not close | Esposito | Endorsed by Trump! | |
Lean D | NY-22 | Mannion | https://www.mannionforny.com/ | $10 | Williams |
Endorsed by Trump!
No government experience! Case against Williams | |
Lean D
F- Tossup 30 Oct | OH-9 | Kaptur | https://marcykaptur.com/ | $10 | Merrin | Endorsed by Trump! | |
Lean D
F- Tossup 30 Oct | OH-13 | Sykes | https://www.emiliasykesforcongress.com/ | $10 | Coughlin |
Endorsed by Trump!
| |
Lean D
C- Tossup 30 Oct | PA-7 | Wild | https://wildforcongress.com/ | $25 | Mackenzie | Endorsed by Trump! | |
Lean D | PA-17 | Deluzio | https://www.chrisforpa.com/ |
Called for Deluzio
53-46 @ 93% $10 bad bet - not close | Mercuri | ||
Likely D
S- Lean D 30 Oct F- Lean D 30 Oct | TX-28 | Henry Cuellar | https://www.henrycuellar.com/ | $10 | Furman | ||
Lean D | TX-34 | Gonzales | https://vicentegonzalez.com/ | $10 | Flores |
Endorsed by Trump!
Election denier! | |
4 Nov Predicted R by 270towin | |||||||
Lean R
F- Likely R 30 Oct | NJ-7 | Altman | https://www.suealtman.com/ | $10 | Kean | ||
Lean R | NY-17 | Jones | https://www.mondaireforcongress.com/ | $40 | Lawler | Expensive race! |
Look up other states here - https://www.270towin.com/2024-house-election/
There are some remarkable House candidates!
Endorsed by Trump! is all you need to know - being endorsed by Trump means the candidate endorses the actions of Trump and other Trumpist candidates as models for future Trumpist elected officials -
How many 2024 elections are at least somewhat contested?
Office | Elections | Contested |
US Senate | 34 | 8 |
US House | 435 | 43 |
State Governor | 11 | 2 |
Self-sorting populations are part of the reason for uncontested elections.
But uncontested elections are a pillar of minority rule, which depends on gerrymandering to produce one-party districts and one-party states. Are open primaries the solution to one-party rule?
For many offices in many states, the only election that matters is the primary of the dominant party. That winner is sure to win the general election. So only the voters in that primary matter. In those districts, the winner doesn't matter much; it will be one or another of the dominant party's extreme candidates supporting minority rule (whether they know it or not). Megadonors don't have to invest in the general election campaign much. In fact, many of those candidates run unopposed. Gruber and Kresky argue for open primaries, where anybody can vote in whichever primary he wants. That doesn't seem like the best approach.
Why not let the parties run their primaries or caucuses any way they want - on their own dime. The important thing is to repeal "sore-loser" laws so people who run and lose in the primary can try again in the general election.
And that general election must be ranked-choice so that a particular point of view doesn't lose just because it's too popular and attracts too many candidates. That way every voter has a say as to who he'd prefer AND who he'd accept if he can't get his first choice, and no voter wastes a vote because there are too many similar candidates.
As for that other pillar of minority rule that contributes to uncontested elections - gerrymandering - multimember districts, WHEN combined with ranked-choice voting, insure that sizable minorities that choose to vote as a bloc are guaranteed some representation.
Tired of one-dollar-one vote "democracy"?
Rather donate your money AGAINST unlimited dark campaign money? Check out these organizations:
Ending unlimited dark campaign money is very popular with almost all ordinary voters, but NOT with campaign megadonors who invest in legislators, and NOT with the legislators those megadonors invest in - Mtich McConnell said that the day President Bush signed McCain's bill into law was "the worst day of my political life".
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