Facebook Posts on election-2018

Title Post
Boost
Reach Like Comments Shares Clicks Hide Hideall Cost Topic
Repeating mistakes 2018-12-24 53 3 4 election
Aim at the middle 2018-12-17 70 3 1 6 election
Another referendum on Trump tomorrow -- 2018-11-26 74 4 3 1 13 1 election
Lessons for Democrats - don't keep preaching to the choir 2018-11-25 67 1 3 17 3 election
MS runoff - very fine people, on both sides? 2018-11-23
2018-11-26
3860
3026
46 78
26
16
12
237
133
3 75 election
very fine people, on both sides? 2018-11-23 65 5 1 1 7 1 election
John Delaney for President? 2018-11-22 34 - 2 election
Remember the Republicans knew this was coming a year ago 2018-11-21 40 1 1 5 1 election
MS runoff - it's not just about Trump 2018-11-21
2018-11-26
3672
3121
66 87
37
15
13
377
301
1 33 election
It wasn't just suburban educated women 2018-11-18 65 7 1 2 11 election
Evolution of Republican Identity - for MS runoff voters 2018-11-18
2018-11-26
2573
2052
81 16
9
25
17
209
182
1 55 election
Words from Washington to McCain -for MS runoff voters 2018-11-18
2018-11-26
2623
2154
69 51
15
20
18
227
178
1 56 election
Pelosi and McCarthy - good for California? 2018-11-06 27 - 1 election
There is no immigration strategy in the middle 2018-11-05
2018-11-06
5694
5366
70 107
40
21
10
190
173
1 2 58 election
A Cross of Gilt 2018-11-05
2018-11-06
7779
7018
89 28
12
46
23
353
644
16 election
Wrong rules the land and waiting Justice sleeps 2018-11-05
2018-11-06
9185
8588
73 14
9
37
31
114
84
1 119 election
Could losing the House be a Trumpist plot? 2018-11-04 63 - 2 13 election
Sample ballots 2018-11-04 29 - 2 election
Should leaders be role models for youth? 2018-11-04
2018-11-06
18570
16992
282 315
94
62
46
1802
1635
3 24 election
Why are these Republicans voting for Democrats? 2018-11-02
2018-11-06
15805
13048
537 269
87
167
103
1575
1153
1 4 31 election
Why are these Republicans voting for Democrats? 2018-11-02 82 12 3 5 18 election
Every vote counts! 2018-11-02 118 12 2 3 28 election
What happens after the election 2018-11-01 74 2 1 3 53 1 election
Former Republicans chime in - 2018-11-01 130 15 9 1 162 2 election
Dirty tricksters alive and well 2018-11-01 63 5 1 1 12 election
The Obama voters that voted for Trump are voting Democratic 2018-11-01 76 9 6 13 election
Each of us, as part of our national defense, 2018-10-31 158 10 1 3 4 election
There's a bunch of Republican Congressional Representatives 2018-10-30 34 2 1 1 6 election
Bakersfield deserves better - and so does the rest of 2018-10-29 130 7 7 4 25 election
A conservative argument for a split Congress 2018-10-28 66 2 2 10 election
Nothing new about indicted or convicted criminals running 2018-10-27 58 3 1 2 8 election
Henry Waxman warns Democrats - don't be like Republicans 2018-10-24 60 4 1 12 election
Where the money goes and where it comes from 2018-10-23 35 2 1 7 election
Unprecedented interest in midterm election, unprecedented 2018-10-23 409 5 5 8 33 election
Negroes for Goldwater 2018-10-19 440 32 7 12 91 1 1 election
If you are going to be inconsistent - you might as well 2018-10-19 112 5 3 3 15 1 election
The first Trump constituency is still hoping for something 2018-10-14 77 6 1 2 12 election
How safe are your elections? 2018-10-11 39 - 3 election
Where the voters' true interests lie 2018-10-10 32 - 1 5 election
political hazards of preaching to the choir 2018-10-10 82 5 2 3 19 election
How to easily find a 53,000 vote advantage 2018-10-10 74 9 2 2 12 election
Irony is dead 2018-10-10 215 31 18 6 99 election
Election insecurity - it's all about the money and the 2018-09-27 40 1 2 15 election
Feeling anxious? Do something about it - register 2018-09-27 126 10 6 6 34 election
Who pays for your candidates? 2018-09-26 84 4 2 5 35 election
putting rape culture on the ballot across the country 2018-09-26 98 12 1 4 15 election
Delusion or salesmanship? 2018-09-20 82 4 5 2 15 election
It's not a good year to get over-confident 2018-09-20 34 - 1 2 12 election
Politics is local as well as national - 2018-09-16 157 4 2 4 23 1 election
Moving from concerned to active 2018-09-16 70 4 1 17 election
Want to get hands on talking to a red district from a 2018-09-14 33 - 1 election
TRUMP IS THE GREATEST PRESIDENT OF ALL TIME!!! 2018-09-13 100 11 8 1 47 election
Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan 2018-09-11 29 1 1 5 election
The Kochs don't like Trump 2018-09-10 162 8 2 5 26 election
If you can't dig up something - then make up something 2018-09-07 91 4 1 3 28 election
register - inform - think - donate - vote - reform 2018-09-07 56 5 1 13 election
op-ed: a deep state conspiracy 2018-09-07 366 21 6 8 93 election
What's going to happen in Florida? 2018-08-29 27 - 1 2 election
register - inform - think - donate - vote - reform 2018-08-28 54 4 2 1 8 election
Splitting the Trump Vote 2018-08-27 50 3 4 election
register - inform - think - donate - vote 2018-08-27 27 - 1 election
Extra barriers for female candidates 2018-08-24 154 12 3 16 election
Another target for the California 7 Project 2018-08-22 205 16 4 6 26 1 election
2018 tactics and future strategy 2018-08-16 34 - 1 3 election
After the midterm elections in November, the whole party 2018-08-13 58 5 3 10 election
a woman who happens to have been far better at her job 2018-08-13 97 13 3 3 7 election
Republican women - don't run this year 2018-08-13 52 3 4 14 election
President Swalwell? 2018-08-12 131 19 3 2 27 election
Wrong answer from the wrong candidate 2018-08-11 66 4 2 2 8 election
Young veterans try to re-invigorate Congress - 2018-07-31 44 5 1 3 election
Constitutional localism 2018-07-30 46 - 2 election
Two glimpses of the future - which one will prove true? 2018-07-29 51 3 5 election
Millenials - it's up to you! 2018-07-27 144 23 1 9 22 election
Republican Party has become Trump Party 2018-06-01 156 13 6 3 33 2 election
"Some things are true even if Trump believes them 2018-05-30 37 - 6 election
The kind of Republican we need - for a blue November 2018-05-22 29 2 2 election
Can Democrats ever address the Trump base? 2018-05-20
2018-06-03
1141
1075
55 69
23
21
20
120
16
1 18 election
Unelectable candidates are a gift to the opposition 2018-05-17 40 6 1 11 1 election
What's the Democratic platform for 2018 and 2020? 2018-05-15 52 1 2 8 election
The Most Ideological Candidate WHO CAN WIN 2018-05-15
2018-06-03
876
822
19 3
2
9
9
63
18
1 40 election
Which is the dog and which is the tail? 2018-05-08 77 2 1 1 21 election
Mail-in ballots go out to California voters 2018-05-08 23 - election
Can Democrats ever address the Trump base? 2018-05-04
2018-06-03
1066
737
58 76
2
25 193
21
2 1 60 election
Republican candidates move closer to the president 2018-05-02
2018-06-03
2719
2559
6
1
5
2
271
137
25 election
Democratic Strategy in 2018 2018-05-01
2018-06-03
2398
2393
2
2
5
4
2
2
289
153
22 election
Republican Strategy in 2018 2018-04-30
2018-06-03
3178
3140
14
1
18
11
386
312
11 election
Is Tribe more important than Ideas? 2018-04-20
2018-04-30
1779
1363
19 48
8
6
1
281
145
14 election
Repeat: Do not act like Republicans in the primaries! 2018-04-20 66 4 1 1 8 election
"Impeach Trump" might be the wrong battle cry 2018-04-18
2018-06-03
2088
1561
23
1
36
2
9
2
358
60
1 30 election
Don't make it easier for the Republicans to retain control 2018-04-09
2018-06-03
3103
3043
45
3
26
11
13
12
310
246
1 15 election
Reproductive Rights, #MeToo, and the 2018 primaries 2018-04-07
2018-06-03
3072
2981
3 12
9
2
1
214
31
159 election
The Most ... Candidate WHO CAN WIN 2018-03-30
2018-04-13
1501
1287
9 3
3
147
38
53 election

Columns of Post Tables

The table above has these entries. Post entries with just one line for Reach were not boosted. Boosted posts have two lines for Reach and several other items. The upper line reflects all interactions, the bottom line just those resulting from paid ads.

UPDATED Thu Mar 4 09:23:45 PST 2021

==========


Repeating mistakes

Wars aren't over when you tweet that they are over.
There needs to be some objective reality - as Trump
evidently understood at one point - and has since forgotten
- as one of his usual cheerleaders points out -

 https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/marc-thiessen-trump-is-about-to-repeat-obamas-mistake-in-the-middle-east

What are the Republicans going to do about it?    Some kind
of intervention is needed -

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/24/opinion/impeach-fire-president-trump.html

but in a way that doesn't offend the hard-core Trump
base enough to support him as a third-party candidate in
2020 - which will really make the Republicans wish they'd
promoted ranked-choice voting while they had the chance.
And doesn't push traditional Republicans into supporting a
more rational centrist third party.   The timing and tone
will be very hard to get right.   But they asked for it.

 https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/772890319722156

Bizarrely, somebody is finding it worthwhile to rewrite
conservative commentary -

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/someone-put-a-fake-headline-on-one-of-my-columns-trump-supporters-bought-it-and-blasted-me/2018/12/23/3f403e52-06ef-11e9-a3f0-71c95106d96a_story.html

One wonders what the mother tongue of that forger might be?
Of course the hard cores kept re-tweeting it even after
the forgery was proven.

And if all that that weren't enough, the economy is overdue
for a recession -

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/24/opinion/trump-economy-stock-market.html

It seems impossible to avoid over the next couple of years,
no matter who is in charge and no matter what policies
they adopt.      The business cycle will get you if you
don't watch out - and it will get you if you do, sooner
or later.     Three possible causes of the next recession -

 https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/11/stocks-are-nosediving-recession-coming/576568/

But maybe there won't be a specific identifiable cause.
Investors might collectively run out of optimism, and the
markets will run out of buyers.

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/theory.html#cycle

If Trump is in charge, voters will blame him anyway.
The unTrumpist Republicans will too, as if they had nothing
to do with it.

==

topic election 1

=====

impact 198
impactrate 0
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posted 2018-12-24
priority 1
ratio 7
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sumclicks 4
title Repeating mistakes
topic election
wordrate 0
words 283
ID 775514442793077
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/775514442793077
audclicks 4
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likeusers 3
likeuusers 50
matchedotherclicks 4
oimpress 97
oreach 53
posted "12/24/2018 06:47:49 AM"
postotherclicks 3
reach 53
type Link

==========


Aim at the middle

Even when they are not numerous, the people in the middle
who might vote either way have an outsized influence in
elections.       You don't get their votes by preaching
to the choir.

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/16/opinion/democrats-2020-election-economic-populism.html

 https://wthh.dataforprogress.org/exploring-vote-switchers-in-2018/

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/05/30/why-trumps-plan-to-slash-food-stamps-and-medicaid-could-cost-him-crucial-supporters/

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#First%20Trump%20Constituency

==

topic election 1

=====

impact 40
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posted 2018-12-17
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sumclicks 6
title Aim at the middle
topic election
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posted "12/17/2018 06:59:25 AM"
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type Link

==========


Another referendum on Trump tomorrow --

Trump will be in Mississippi today campaigning for a
Republican who proudly supports Trump 100%.      In fact
that seems to be her answer for every question - she's
found that deviating from that message just gets her
into trouble.

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2018/11/26/daily-202-trump-s-rescue-mission-to-mississippi-may-drag-cindy-hyde-smith-across-the-finish-line/5bfb669c1b326b60d128001d

==

topic election

=====

comments 3
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impact 106
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posted 2018-11-26
ratio 3
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title Another referendum on Trump tomorrow --
topic election
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oreach 74
posted "11/26/2018 08:59:31 AM"
postlinkclicks 2
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reach 74
sharesimpress 1
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type Link

==========


Lessons for Democrats - don't keep preaching to the choir

especially if the choir is shrinking!

Is the future of the Trumpist party already being written
in California?

 https://calmatters.org/articles/commentary/the-trump-effect-worked-well-for-democrats/

The California Republican party is currently in third
place behind unpartied voters, and headed further down
rather than up.

Even a reliable Trump cheerleader like Mark Thiessen can
see where this is going -

 https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/2018/11/20/thiessen-donald-trump-needs-do-avoid-being-one-term-president/2070166002/

Trump's less prescient sycophants indulge his fantasy that
there's some deep conspiracy undoing all his good works -

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/new-book-by-trump-advisers-calls-out-the-presidents-embedded-enemies/2018/11/24/afcbd0fc-ede3-11e8-baac-2a674e91502b_story.html

But Trump being Trump means holding more and more campaign
rallies for his shrinking base, leading lock-her-up chants
and bragging about the big beautiful wall.  Even when the
rally is nominally to support somebody else.      Trump
just can't seem to make the transition from the excitement
of campaigning to the hard drudgery of governing.

That recalls a Twilight Zone episode from the 1950's -
astronauts land on a planet and find that it's actually
Heaven - all the departed are there, each frozen for
all eternity in the greatest moment of his life - and
sure enough, one of them was a politician addressing a
cheering campaign rally.       The only moving creature
there was The Caretaker, who walked around with a little
brush dusting everybody off.

And Democratic impeachment enthusiasts should consider
this - giving President Pence a year to push reactionary
legislation through Congress far more skillfully than
Trump could imagine, and time to reconcile with former
Republicans disgusted with Trumpism, could leave the
Republicans in a far stronger position in 2020.       And
that's a powerful  argument against pursuing impeachment
prior to the 2020 primary campaign season.

==

topic election

=====

hide 3
impact 650
impactrate 0
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posted 2018-11-25
ratio 2
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sumclicks 17
title Lessons for Democrats - don't keep preaching to the choir
topic election
wordrate 0
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ID 757425467935308
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posted "11/25/2018 07:47:57 AM"
postlinkclicks 5
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==========


MS runoff - very fine people, on both sides?

 https://www.newsweek.com/mississippi-history-its-best-senator-cindy-hyde-smith-posed-confederate-1225959

Yes, there were some very fine people on the Confederate
side - in other ways.       But the words of their leaders
confirm  they were fighting for slavery first and foremost,
even when coded as "states rights."  Worse,  it
was a "rich man's war and a poor man's fight" -

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty_Negro_Law

In short, there's really no good reason to impute any
heroism to defense of American feudalism.     Better to
look to the future than to the past.

But without the Klan, Nazis, crackpot conspiracy theorists,
etc., the Republicans don't have a winning margin in
many places.   So all Trumpists and most other Republicans
never disavow those supporters and always try to subtly
encourage them, rather than dishearten them, lest they
stay home on election day.     Without that winning margin,
the Republicans don't control the government, can't enact
their billionaire Republican donors' agenda, and won't
get any more donations from them.

==

There's more at

 https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/754717688206086
 https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/753202291690959
 https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/753165165028005


 https://www.facebook.com/pg/politicalscrapbooknet/posts

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/facebook.html

 http://www.political-theses.net/

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net


==

topic election 2

=====

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title MS runoff - very fine people, on both sides?
topic election
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ccleantitle MS runoff - very fine people, on both sides?
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==========


very fine people, on both sides?

 https://www.newsweek.com/mississippi-history-its-best-senator-cindy-hyde-smith-posed-confederate-1225959

Yes, there were some very fine people on the Confederate
side - in other ways.       But the words of their leaders
confirm  they were fighting for slavery first and foremost,
even when coded as "states rights."  Worse,  it
was a "rich man's war and a poor man's fight" -

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty_Negro_Law

In short, there's really no good reason to impute any
heroism to defense of American feudalism.     Better to
look to the future than to the past.

But without the Klan, Nazis, crackpot conspiracy theorists,
etc., the Republicans don't have a winning margin in
many places.   So all Trumpists and most other Republicans
never disavow those supporters and always try to subtly
encourage them, rather than dishearten them, lest they
stay home on election day.     Without that winning margin,
the Republicans don't control the government, can't enact
their billionaire Republican donors' agenda, and won't
get any more donations from them.

==

There's more at

 https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/754717688206086
 https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/753202291690959
 https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/753165165028005


 https://www.facebook.com/pg/politicalscrapbooknet/posts

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/facebook.html

 http://www.political-theses.net/

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net


==

topic election

=====

comments 1
hide 1
impact 242
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negative 1
posted 2018-11-23
ratio 4
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sharesrate 0
sumclicks 7
title very fine people, on both sides?
topic election
wordrate 0
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matchedlinkclicks 2
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oimpress 75
oreach 65
posted "11/23/2018 07:41:42 AM"
postlinkclicks 2
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reach 65
sharesimpress 1
sharesusers 1
type Link

==========


John Delaney for President?

He's already running.

 https://www.marylandmatters.org/blog/delaneys-presidential-bid-gets-the-george-will-treatment/

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/10/us/politics/john-delaney-2020-iowa.html

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/want-to-topple-trump-take-john-delaney-seriously/2018/11/16/d34346ee-e90d-11e8-a939-9469f1166f9d_story.html

==

topic election

=====

impact 2
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negative 0
posted 2018-11-22
ratio 17
react 2
reactrate 0
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sumclicks 2
title John Delaney for President?
topic election
wordrate 0
words 10
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URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/755329861478202
audclicks 2
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likeuimpress 40
likeuusers 33
matchedlinkclicks 1
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oreach 34
posted "11/22/2018 06:56:57 AM"
postlinkclicks 1
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reach 34
type Link

==========


Remember the Republicans knew this was coming a year ago

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2017/12/08/journalists-forget-the-rust-belt-diners-head-for-the-suburban-yoga-classes/

 https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/18/us/politics/house-control-2018-suburbs-trump-republicans-democrats.html

 https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/556514674693056

But it's bigger than that now -

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2018/11/19/the-end-of-trump

Who's going to make the most of it?

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/opinions/wp/2018/11/20/driving-toward-2020-a-pile-up-in-the-left-lane

==

topic election

=====

comments 1
hide 1
impact 22
impactrate 0
likeimpress 1
negative 1
posted 2018-11-21
ratio 5
react 8
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 5
title Remember the Republicans knew this was coming a year ago
topic election
wordrate 0
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ID 754958818181973
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/754958818181973
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oreach 40
posted "11/21/2018 04:42:42 PM"
postlinkclicks 2
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type Link

==========


MS runoff - it's not just about Trump

The Republican candidate is Trumpier than Trump, saying
right out loud what he only hints at.

 https://www.foxnews.com/politics/walmart-asks-for-contribution-back-from-mississippi-gop-sen-hyde-smith-after-controversial-comments

 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/democrat-espy-charges-debate-sen-hyde-smith-s-public-hanging-n938751

==

There's more at

 https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/753165165028005
 https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/753202291690959

 https://www.facebook.com/pg/politicalscrapbooknet/posts

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/facebook.html

 http://www.political-theses.net/

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net


==

topic election 2

=====

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==========


It wasn't just suburban educated women

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/17/opinion/sunday/trump-is-beginning-to-lose-his-grip.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

=====

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==========


Evolution of Republican Identity - for MS runoff voters

Be sure to vote on November 27!  The whole world is
watching.

==

Why were these Republicans voting for Democrats?

 https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/30/politics/chesley-sullenberger-washington-post-op-ed/index.html

 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/vote-against-every-single-republican-columnist-urges-senate-candidates-dodge-on-trumps-birthright-citizenship-plan-2018-11-01

 https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/394377-george-will-is-right-vote-the-gop-out

 https://washingtonmonthly.com/2018/08/10/you-cant-save-the-gop-by-electing-republican-senators/

They hold many traditional conservative Republican points
of view, and they aren't going to become Democrats, but
they are voting Democratic this time.

What happens to them after the election?  They'll have to
decide based on the results of the election and how the
remaining Republicans react to those results.  If the
GOP decides that it lost the House because it wasn't
Trumpist enough, then it will be truly a lost cause.
Democrats will continue to figure out how to attract back
those who voted for Obama and then Trump.  The Democrats
will be glad to leave the racists, anti-semites, and
fascists to the Trumpists, so they can follow the path of
the American Independent Party to oblivion -

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Independent_Party

==

The Obama voters that voted for Trump are voting Democratic
again -

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/opinion/when-trump-voters-go-for-democrats.html

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#First%20Trump%20Constituency

This constituency is desperate - for something to be
hopeful about.  But it sounds like the change that they
are hoping for can't come from Trumpists.

Meanwhile, in another universe, another faithful Republican
constituency is getting driven away -

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/us/politics/republicans-trump-house.html

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#Third%20Trump%20Constituency

This constituency is disgusted.

What about that other Trump constituency that comes to his
campaign rallies - even though they're either two years
late or two years early.  They're with Trump forever,
because nobody else will will admit to wanting them -

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#Second%20Trump%20Constituency

Trump accepts the second constituency's unconditional
love at his campaign rallies, which Trump craves like a
junkie his junk.  In return he offers them all the words
and chants they want.   And not much else.  In fact,
probably less...

Consider the history of the social safety net.

Social security - Republicans mostly voted in favor -

 https://www.ssa.gov/history/tally.html

Medicare -  Republicans opposed in the Senate, split in
the House -

 https://www.ssa.gov/history/tally65.html

Obamacare - No Republican votes

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patient_Protection_and_Affordable_Care_Act#Legislative_history

even though it was based on Mitt Romney's popular
Masscare -

 http://www.nbcnews.com/id/44854320/ns/politics-decision_2012/t/white-house-used-mitt-romney-health-care-law-blueprint-federal-law

If you want to see how it adds up -

 https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_budget_detail_2017bs22017n_0010

Seeing how it adds up, McConnell's regretfully come to a
sad conclusion - we'll have to reduce the social safety
net to pay for billionaire tax cuts.

 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-16/mcconnell-blames-entitlements-not-gop-for-rising-deficits

But he wants the Democrats to take the lead on fiscal
responsibility because the Trumpists reject the notion
out of hand.

But wait, there's more!

According to Trump advisor Kudlow, a minimum wage is a
terrible idea, when we could be passing more billionaire
tax cuts instead -

 https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/larry-kudlow-federal-minimum-wage_us_5bdb1c94e4b0da7bfc17d59a

==

So how did we get here?   Consider the evolution of the
Republican Party - from liberation to identity politics.

The Republican Party defeated the Confederacy, freed
the slaves, and then got stuck in the House trying
to decide the Hayes-Tilden election of 1876.  So the
Corrupt Bargain was struck - the Republican Hayes became
President, and withdrew Federal troops from the South,
ending Reconstruction and giving the unrepentant southern
Democrats a free hand for 80 years -

 https://historyengine.richmond.edu/episodes/view/317

until the Supreme Court finally struck down "separate
but equal" and the Republican President Eisenhower
enforced it with Federal troops -

 http://www.americaslibrary.gov/aa/eisenhower/aa_eisenhower_littlerock_1.html

leading to founding of the John Birch Society with their
"Impeach Earl Warren" campaign and claims that
Eisenhower was a Communist traitor -

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Birch_Society

Goldwater and William Buckley and many other Republican
leaders kept their distance from the Birchers, and in 1964
Goldwater lost by a landslide to LBJ.  Goldwater was too
far right, but of course the lunatic fringe thought he was
not far right ENOUGH.   But Goldwater opposed the Civil
Rights Act of 1964

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_Rights_Act_of_1964

and the Voting Rights Act of 1965

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_Rights_Act_of_1965

and that encouraged many Dixiecrats to abandon the
Democratic Party, led by Strom Thurmond

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Senators_who_switched_parties

and Albert Watson

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Representatives_who_switched_parties

Their racism made many traditional Republicans nervous, but
Richard Nixon had been rebuilding a political organization
for another run for President.  Nixon realized that,
properly handled, the former Dixiecrats were an asset
rather than a liability.  According to Haldeman,
"Nixon emphasized that you have to face the fact
that the whole problem is really the blacks. The key is to
devise a system that recognized this while not appearing
to."

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_strategy

Although the RNC chair apologized for the Southern Strategy
in 2005, he was speaking too soon.

In 2009, Obama was elected President, and the Tea Party
was born

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tea_Party_movement

Since Obama's politics were not much different from Bill
Clinton's, it's hard to escape the conclusion that racism
was an important factor in the rise of the Tea Party.
It was not explicitly racist, but it was part of the
oppose-Obama-on-everything movement within the Republican
party

 https://www.politico.com/story/2010/10/the-gops-no-compromise-pledge-044311

which certainly appealed to all the racists.

Trump's great insight was that by signaling (subtly at
first, blatantly later) to the racists and and anti-semites
and fascists, they'd stick with him forever, and by other
means he could also attract the Obama voters who were
hoping for a change for the better.  Of course, the reason
there hadn't been as much change for the better as hoped,
is that the Republicans were blocking Obama on everything.
Even so, Obamacare passed and the economy as a whole has
been recovering since 2009.

But the Republicans cleverly convinced enough voters that
they were against Obamacare, even though polls asking about
any specific aspect of Obamacare, but without mentioning
"Obamacare", such as affordable coverage for
pre-existing conditions, found quite widespread support.
Trump could easily promise to repeal Obamacare and come
up with better coverage for more people at lower cost.

And while the economy as a whole has been recovering,
the recovery has been uneven, especially in industries
undone by technological advance or their environmental
costs.     Trump could easily promise to turn back the
tide of technology and and the tide of rising oceans and
environmental degradation.

And that's how Trump barely won.      Since then he has
done a great job of keeping the racists, anti-semites,
fascists, and anti-intellectuals in his camp, but those
who had voted for Obama and then Trump have noticed that
he hasn't really done anything for them after all.

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#First%20Trump%20Constituency

So now he has to create distractions of foreign menace
of impoverished peasant invasions, and somehow avoid the
distractions of domestic menace by his hard-core followers
who took him too literally and too seriously.

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#Second%20Trump%20Constituency

 https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/nation/2018/10/31/george-soros-and-migrant-caravan-how-lie-multiplied-online/1824633002/

 https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/11/03/the-republican-party-and-white-identity

But sticking too close to his white-identity-politics
hard-core base may be his undoing.    Cults of personality
have not lasted long in American politics.

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cult_of_personality

The Trumpist Party has no fixed ideology beyond the whims
and prejudices of the leader, who owes nothing to the past
or to the future, but mutually supports and abets other
personality cults all over the world.

Don't like it?     The 2018 election is a national
referendum on ideas vs personality cults.       For this
one specific moment in history, voters interested in
ideas need to vote for ideas and against personality
cults.  That means in almost every instance, a vote for
Republicans, Libertarians, Greens, independents, or staying
home because it doesn't matter - is a vote for personality
cults.     An astonishing number of House and even Senate
seats and Governorships are too close too call this year -
meaning individual votes count as never before.  In almost
every instance, at this specific moment, the only effective
vote against personality cults is to vote Democratic.

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cult_of_personality

America was founded on ideas rather than personalities-

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are
created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with
certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life,
Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.

A new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the
proposition that all men are created equal.

Traditional Republicans who think of themselves as part
of the party of Lincoln and Theodore Roosevelt should
think about what it means when a party of ideas becomes a
personality cult - which is the tendency of populist and
fascist movements.

==

A president who wants to build a legacy needs a tent
large enough to weather various kinds of crises among
sub-constituencies.  Trump seems uninterested and unable
to do so.  He's indeed a great disrupter, as claimed,
but not a great builder, which also was claimed.

 https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/10/trump-is-still-blaming-the-far-left-media-for-americas-divisiveness/

The nation will recover eventually, as it has from other
fundamental crises.  The outlook for the Republican Party
is not so certain, and recalls the fate of the Whigs -

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whig_Party_(United_States)#Decline

The Republicans might split into a hard-core identitarian
Trumpist party and one espousing more traditional
Republican values.    Hard to guess which one will retain
the Republican name!  Trump certainly likes to see his
name in gold on everything he touches.    It would be
good for the Republicans to finally excise their cancer
of racism, anti-semitism, and fascism.  After years of
berating the Democrats for identity politics, it's time
for the Republicans to take the same medicine.

The Democrats could go the same factional route if success
went to their heads and they got too far ahead of the
middle of the electorate.  That might eventually lead to
a new majority coalition in the middle for a while.

If the Democrats are smart, they will become the new
majority coalition somewhat left of the middle, far
enough left to have ideals and goals, yet close enough
to the middle and the left to keep both in the tent.
No small task.

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/theory.html#conservative

==

Title: The case against Trump: character

Trump might be impeached in the new House but not convicted
in the Senate.  It's hard to imagine what new high crimes
and misdemeanors could be so shocking, compared to what
we already know, that they would change the minds of 15-20
Republican Senators necessary for conviction amd removal,
who have already fully committed to Trump - and would
thus admit that they were either fools or co-conspirators
all along.  Of course, as self-serving opportunists
like Trump, they'd turn on him overnight if they thought
it in their interest.    There is no love lost between
them; he's insulted them all at one point or another.
But Fox is there to make sure they don't flip on Trump.
John Dean says Nixon might have survived if Fox had been
there to protect him -

 https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/01/02/john-dean-nixon-might-have-survived-if-thered-been-a-fox-news-216207

Likewise it's hard to imagine Pence and the Trump cabinet
invoking the 25th Amendment - that would tell as much
about them as about Trump.

The case against Trump - and by extension his enablers -
comes down to something more serious - CHARACTER.

1) Trump is a salesman first and foremost.  He tells his
supporters what they want to hear and what he wants them
to hear, not what they need to hear.   Would you buy a
used car, a penny stock, a cable or cell phone plan based
on Trump's promises?    Trust him alone with your daughter?

2) Trump addresses the feelings of his supporters by
telling the truth about his own feelings.  The only truth
he cares about is the truth of his feelings.    Like other
authoritarians and would-be authoritarians, he rejects
out of hand the idea that there is an external objective
reality against which his feelings might be compared.
He never admits to being wrong and never apologizes for
mistakes, which means he never learns anything, even when
he changes course 180 degrees.

 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46061646

3) Trump can't move beyond his shrinking base and doesn't
even want to.  He'd much rather have an exciting rally
with his permanent supporters than reach out to former
supporters and potential supporters.   He's not interested
in the widest possible Republican tent, only the most
enthusiastic Trumpist tent.    That means, to support their
continuing minority rule, the rest of the Republicans have
to double down on voter suppression, gerrymandering, big
dark campaign money, and creating a politicized Federal
judiciary to support those efforts.

4) Trump promises his supporters one thing and delivers
another.  His talking points are for the forgotten
Americans, but his actions are for the billionaire
Republican donors, on deregulation relief, taxation relief,
and immigration non-reform.  He talked about e-verify on
the campaign trail but dropped it when he learned how his
donors feel.   He imposes tariffs that transfer wealth
from one set of Americans to another more favored one -
that's called Welfare.  And whatever happened to the
massive infrastructure plan that the Democrats were so
eager to cooperate on?

5) Trump recognizes no debt to the past or to his
predecessors, nor to the future or his successors.
"One sows and another reaps" - Trump takes
credit for the economic recovery begun in 2009 against
all Republican obstacles.  Does anybody believe he will
accept any responsibility for the inevitable recession
that follows every recovery, or for the inflation caused
by deficit spending at the top of a recovery, or for the
debt service cost later?  Not his problem as long as it
happens after 2020.

6) Trump attracts self-serving opportunists to government
service.  A self-serving opportunist at the top sets the
tone all the way down.  He can't keep up with the pressure
to fill appointed positions, or to refill positions vacated
by his cronies who just can't seem to master government
ethics, or just don't care, or expect to be pardoned
if caught.

7) Trump claims that there's nothing to be learned from
his tax returns or audited financials or investigation
of his campaign's Russian contacts.  And so he refuses to
release any information about his financials and threatens
to shut down Mueller's investigation - just what one would
expect if there IS something to be learned.    In contrast,
Mike Pence's tax returns have been public since before
the 2016 election and, sure enough, there is nothing to
learn and nothing to talk about there.

==

What happens after the election?

1) There will be even more reorg than usual in the Trump
administration.  Anybody that has thwarted his impulses is
apt to be relieved of their duties, starting with Sessions,
Rosenstein, and Mueller.

2) The final results of the Mueller investigation will
probably come to light anyway, with more indictments for
Trump campaigners - Roger Stone looks like a particularly
good bet.  Trump might respond that they had little role
or none in his campaign, but might pardon any of them that
can keep their mouths shut.

3) Most interesting is whether anything comes of the income
and estate tax investigations by New York state and New
York city.

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/04/us/politics/donald-trump-fred-trump-tax-schemes.html

The New York Times reported criminally fraudulent behavior
in the estate planning of Fred Trump for his heirs.
The Federal criminal statute of limitations has expired for
that time period, but New York law for criminal and civil
investigations might be different, and the same threads
might be followed into more recent years for which the
statute of limitations has not expired.     Trump might
respond that his lawyers and accountants were responsible,
not him, but he can't pardon them for civil matters nor
state criminal offenses.

==

As for the future, there are a lot of structural reforms
needed - getting dark money out of politics, encouraging
voter  registration and turnout instead of suppressing,
ending gerrymandering, adopting ranked-choice voting
and multi-member districts, changing the way Congress
runs itself - that will increase voter choices by making
independent and ideological candidates more feasible.

 https://www.fairvote.org/

 https://www.nolabels.org/

 https://www.uniteamerica.org/

 http://www.americanpromise.net/

But those efforts will take years to come to fruition.
Now is the time for short-term action.

==

There's more at

 https://www.facebook.com/pg/politicalscrapbooknet/posts

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/facebook.html

 http://www.political-theses.net/

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net

==

topic election 2

=====

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==========


Words from  Washington to McCain -for MS runoff voters

Be sure to vote on November 27!  The whole world is
watching.

==

John McCain

 https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2018/08/27/mccain-letter-final-words-americas-politics-and-partisanship/1112268002/

We are citizens of the world's greatest republic, a nation
of ideals, not blood and soil. We are blessed and are
a blessing to humanity when we uphold and advance those
ideals at home and in the world.

==

Katharine Lee Bates

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/America_the_Beautiful

O beautiful for spacious skies, For amber waves of grain,
For purple mountain majesties Above the fruited plain!
America! America!  God shed His grace on thee And crown
thy good with brotherhood From sea to shining sea!

O beautiful for pilgrim feet, Whose stern, impassioned
stress A thoroughfare for freedom beat Across the
wilderness!  America! America!  God mend thine every flaw,
Confirm thy soul in self-control, Thy liberty in law!

O beautiful for heroes proved In liberating strife,
Who more than self their country loved And mercy more
than life!  America! America!  May God thy gold refine,
Till all success be nobleness, And every gain divine!

O beautiful for patriot dream That sees beyond the years
Thine alabaster cities gleam Undimmed by human tears!
America! America!  God shed His grace on thee And crown
thy good with brotherhood From sea to shining sea!

===

William Jennings Bryan -

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross_of_Gold_speech

There are two ideas of government.  There are those who
believe that, if you will only legislate to make the
well-to-do prosperous, their prosperity will leak through
on those below.  The Democratic idea, however, has been
that if you legislate to make the masses prosperous,
their prosperity will find its way up through every class
which rests upon them...  You shall not press down upon
the brow of labor this crown of thorns; you shall not
crucify mankind upon a cross of gold.

But there are other ideas of populism, though -

 https://www.forbes.com/sites/eriksherman/2018/11/01/no-minimum-wage-increases-anywhere-says-trump-advisor-corporate-tax-cuts-are-enough/#29cd38de4351

 https://www.newsweek.com/trump-tax-cuts-rich-americans-republicans-1133372

 https://www.stltoday.com/opinion/editorial/editorial-predictably-republicans-hint-that-tax-plan-deficit-justifies-entitlement/article_a5e74a11-49aa-51e0-a8e0-9d6ee7859732.html

==

Josiah Gilbert Holland

 http://www.theotherpages.org/poems/holland1.html

GOD, give us men! A time like this demands Strong minds,
great hearts, true faith and ready hands; Men whom the
lust of office does not kill; Men whom the spoils of office
can not buy; Men who possess opinions and a will; Men who
have honor; men who will not lie; Men who can stand before
a demagogue And damn his treacherous flatteries without
winking!  Tall men, sun-crowned, who live above the fog In
public duty, and in private thinking; For while the rabble,
with their thumb-worn creeds, Their large professions and
their little deeds, Mingle in selfish strife, lo! Freedom
weeps, Wrong rules the land and waiting Justice sleeps.

==

George Washington

 https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Washington%27s_Farewell_Address

It is important, likewise, that the habits of thinking in
a free country should inspire caution, in those intrusted
with its administration, to confine themselves within
their respective constitutional spheres, avoiding in the
exercise of the powers of one department to encroach
upon another. The spirit of encroachment tends to
consolidate the powers of all the departments in one,
and thus to create, whatever the form of government, a
real despotism. A just estimate of that love of power,
and proneness to abuse it, which predominates in the
human heart, is sufficient to satisfy us of the truth of
this position. The necessity of reciprocal checks in the
exercise of political power, by dividing and distributing
it into different depositories, and constituting each
the Guardian of the Public Weal against invasions by
the others, has been evinced by experiments ancient and
modern; some of them in our country and under our own
eyes. To preserve them must be as necessary as to institute
them. If, in the opinion of the people, the distribution
or modification of the constitutional powers be in any
particular wrong, let it be corrected by an amendment
in the way, which the constitution designates. But let
there be no change by usurpation; for, though this,
in one instance, may be the instrument of good, it
is the customary weapon by which free governments are
destroyed. The precedent must always greatly overbalance
in permanent evil any partial or transient benefit, which
the use can at any time yield.

But there are other ideas of executive power -

 https://www.axios.com/trump-birthright-citizenship-executive-order-0cf4285a-16c6-48f2-a933-bd71fd72ea82.html

==

So how are you going to vote?

There's more at

 https://www.facebook.com/pg/politicalscrapbooknet/posts

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/facebook.html

 http://www.political-theses.net/

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net

==

topic election 2

=====

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==========


Pelosi and McCarthy - good for California?

It seems doubtful that there will be any special benefit
for California if two of its representatives were the party
leaders in Congress.        That's about as likely as high
speed rail ever getting finished between San Francisco and
Bakersfield.      But similar in this way - if it ever DID
happen, people would say why didn't they do this sooner.

 https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2018/11/02/nancy-pelosi-kevin-mccarthy-california-house-leader-bakersfield-san-francisco/

 https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/11/04/dont-tell-bay-area-voters-this-is-no-battleground-anger-and-enthusiasm-near-all-time-highs/

==

topic election

=====

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==========


There is no immigration strategy in the middle

 https://www.voanews.com/a/comprehensive-us-immigration-reform-elusive/4332393.html

Trying to reduce illegal immigration in the middle is at
best a tactical move and at worst a strategic blunder,
by making it more difficult and hence more profitable for
organized crime.

==

One way to reduce illegal immigration AT THE SOURCE is
to improve economic conditions and political conditions
at the source.  That's what public foreign aid is for.
Instead the Trumpists want to cut what little there is -
except probably that spent on military assistance that
supports corrupt regimes.  Foreign non-military aid is
much less expensive than building a wall or deploying the
army to the border -

 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-45933845

Even more expensive than a wall is sending in the Marines
to troubled countries , which was done repeatedly and
ineffectively for many years and finally led to FDR's Good
Neighbor Policy -

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Neighbor_policy

Improving economic and political conditions is also what
private foreign aid is for.  Instead the Trumpists vilify
the Soros Open Society Foundation -

 https://www.opensocietyfoundations.org/press-releases/guatemala-must-continue-its-commitment-combat-corruption-and-impunity

 https://www.opensocietyfoundations.org/about/programs/latin-america-program

==

One way to reduce illegal immigration AT THE DESTINATION
is to require e-verify for everbody, starting with all the
employees of the Trump organizations and Trump licensees.

 https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/12/politics/daca-e-verify-internal-enforcement/index.html

But that's a non-starter in Congress; it would damage
American agriculture, the hospitality business, and many
other industries which depend on exploitable cheap labor.

==

In short, the Trump administration has no long-term
strategy, only election-year tactics, that raise the
question of whether they really want to solve the problem
with comprehensive immigration reform.

 https://www.voanews.com/a/comprehensive-us-immigration-reform-elusive/4332393.html

In the even longer term, all the Western democracies have
to import labor at all skill levels to maintain their
standard of living with the declining birth rate that's
common to all advanced economies, where children are
expensive liabilities rather than valuable labor assets.

 http://www.liberty-and-justice.net/

==

There's more at

 https://www.facebook.com/pg/politicalscrapbooknet/posts

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/facebook.html

 http://www.political-theses.net/

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net

==

topic election 2

=====

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==========


A Cross of Gilt

 https://www.forbes.com/sites/eriksherman/2018/11/01/no-minimum-wage-increases-anywhere-says-trump-advisor-corporate-tax-cuts-are-enough/#29cd38de4351

 https://www.newsweek.com/trump-tax-cuts-rich-americans-republicans-1133372

 https://www.stltoday.com/opinion/editorial/editorial-predictably-republicans-hint-that-tax-plan-deficit-justifies-entitlement/article_a5e74a11-49aa-51e0-a8e0-9d6ee7859732.html

That's the Trumpist idea of populist government.

==

Not all populists are the same, though -

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/02/opinion/sunday/the-democrats-next-job-bury-supply-side-economics.html

William Jennings Bryan -

There are two ideas of government.  There are those who
believe that, if you will only legislate to make the
well-to-do prosperous, their prosperity will leak through
on those below.  The Democratic idea, however, has been
that if you legislate to make the masses prosperous,
their prosperity will find its way up through every class
which rests upon them...  You shall not press down upon
the brow of labor this crown of thorns; you shall not
crucify mankind upon a cross of gold.

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross_of_Gold_speech

==

So how are you going to vote?   Trickle down or trickle up?

There's more at

 https://www.facebook.com/pg/politicalscrapbooknet/posts

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/facebook.html

 http://www.political-theses.net/

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net

==

topic election 2

=====

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==========


Wrong rules the land and waiting Justice sleeps

GOD, give us men! A time like this demands Strong minds,
great hearts, true faith and ready hands; Men whom the
lust of office does not kill; Men whom the spoils of office
can not buy; Men who possess opinions and a will; Men who
have honor; men who will not lie; Men who can stand before
a demagogue And damn his treacherous flatteries without
winking!  Tall men, sun-crowned, who live above the fog In
public duty, and in private thinking; For while the rabble,
with their thumb-worn creeds, Their large professions and
their little deeds, Mingle in selfish strife, lo! Freedom
weeps, Wrong rules the land and waiting Justice sleeps.

   Josiah Gilbert Holland

 http://www.theotherpages.org/poems/holland1.html

==

Things haven't changed that much.

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Josiah_Gilbert_Holland

How are you going to vote?

There's more at

 https://www.facebook.com/pg/politicalscrapbooknet/posts

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/facebook.html

 http://www.political-theses.net/

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net

==

topic election 2

=====

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==========


Could losing the House be a Trumpist plot?

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/11/04/could-losing-house-actually-help-trump/

Probably not, but it could be advantageous to Trump in
2020 if his base gets tired of immigration.

One could hope that a closely divided House might be an
incentive for cooperation to get things done, but McConnell
is not going to let anything through the Senate that he
doesn't like, whether he's majority or minority leader.

=====

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==========


Sample ballots

Organizing For Action has a new tool with sample ballots
for every community in the U.S., so you can see what you'll
be voting on -

 https://www.ofa.us/lets-get-ready-to-vote/

Here's another -

 https://www.ballotready.org/

or for California

 http://votersedge.org/ca

Look out for fair redistricting ballot measures if you
live in one of ndrc's target or watch list states -

- Colorado: Amendments Y and Z - Michigan: Proposal 2 -
Missouri: Amendment 1 - Utah: Proposition 4

Thanks to NDRC for pointing out the new tool -

 http://www.democraticredistricting.com

More at

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/democracy.html#redistricting

==

election

=====

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==========


Should leaders be role models for youth?

If celebrity entertainers and athletes think they can get
away with anything, they'll carry the same mindset if they
should happen to be elected to high office.

Now a bomber has asserted a modern version of the mythical
Dan White Twinkie Defense - who else is going to try that?

 https://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKCN1N50TY-OZATP

It's even gone international -

 https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/nigerian-army-donald-trump-shia-muslim-islamic-movement-migrant-caravan-shooting-a8615281.html

50 years ago, polls showed that most American women would
like it if their sons became President, but most American
women would not like it if their sons became politicians.
Those moms were unclear on the concept of the President's
jobs.       Even so, one wonders how many women would
like their sons to grow up to be just like Trump.  Some at
least -

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/03/us/politics/trump-women.html

== The midterm election is a referendum on Trump

He says so himself -

 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/midterms-are-referendum-trump-he-s-embracing-it-n920086

== Trump always tells the truth - when he can

He says so himself -

 https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wall-people-trump-defends-military-presence-border/story?id=58878290

Must be the mainstream media that are forcing him to lie
constantly -

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/opinion/republican-party-lies.html

== Trump's genius is focusing on problems with no simple
solutions

Those kinds of problems will still be around next year
and in 2020.  That's one kind of recycling he endorses!
The last thing he'd want to do is solve them, if he
knew how.

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/02/opinion/democrats-midterms-winning-trump.html

Republicans in contested elections want him to talk about
the economy.  Trump will have none of it.

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/02/us/politics/immigration-economy-republicans-trump-midterms.html

Perhaps he's aware that a recession is overdue and he
wants to keep the conversation focussed elsewhere.

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/02/upshot/the-job-market-is-firing-on-all-cylinders-three-questions-will-determine-how-long-it-can-last.html

Perhaps he understands that income inequality breeds
resentment and racism.  From that point of view,
maintaining or even exacerbating income inequality feeds
his larger purpose.

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/02/opinion/trump-voters-inequality-racism.html

== Who needs a caravan right now?

The Trumpists have discarded their losing talking points
about repealing Obamacare and billionaire tax cuts in
favor of creating hysteria about illegal immigration -

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/03/us/politics/republicans-house-races-caravan-voters.html

But as usual, the Trumpists only want to talk about illegal
immigration, they don't really want to do anything about
it.    Their politicians need the issue, and their donors
need the supply of cheap exploitable labor to do jobs
that Americans won't touch at the wages they want to pay,
especially with full employment.  So they block any actual
solutions, whether bipartisan efforts at comprehensive
immigration reform at home, or aid to the the troubled
countries whence the migrants flee.

 http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/columnists/michael-smolens/sd-me-smolens-immigration-20180627-story.html

So who really has a vested interest in promoting publicity
about immigrant caravans?   They've been going on for a
while - as protection against criminals and corrupt cops
along the way - but they weren't such a big deal until
Trump gave them worldwide publicity and actually ended up
encouraging them.

And if anybody actually were paying migrants to participate
- wouldn't it be somebody with an interest is having a
big show right before the election?  Some dirty trickster,
some foreign power with an interest in promoting Trumpism
and disruption?

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/us/politics/roger-stone-trump-campaign-mueller-wikileaks.html

"Luck comes to the skillful" - and just like the
DNC emails, Trump always seems to get lucky help just when
he needs it - leaving only the question of who provides
the skill.

== Why are several prominent Republicans voting Democratic
this time?

 https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/413756-pilot-sully-sullenberger-this-is-not-the-america-i-know-and

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/books/review/max-boot-the-corrosion-of-conservatism.html

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/26/opinion/never-trump-republicans-midterms-democrats.html

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/20/opinion/sunday/congress-republicans-democrats-conservatives.html

The statements by Max Boot, Michael Gerson, Chesley
Sullenberger, and George Will may be found in the
Washington Post opinions and blogs/post-partisan sections,
or linked from

 https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/743068179371037

They hold many traditional conservative Republican points
of view, and they aren't going to become Democrats, but
they are voting Democratic this time.       What happens to
them after the election?   They'll have to decide based
on the results of the election and how the remaining
Republicans react to those results.

If the GOP loses control of Congress and decides that it
lost because it wasn't Trumpy enough, then it will be
truly a lost cause.  Democrats will continue to figure
out how to attract back those who voted for Obama and
then Trump.     The Democrats will be glad to leave the
racists, anti-semites, and fascists to the Trumpists.
They can follow the path of the American Independent Party
to oblivion -

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Independent_Party

== How did the GOP fall into this dark hole?

 https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/10/destroy-the-republican-party-max-boot-calls-for-a-clean-start/

It's actually older than Nixon's Southern Strategy.
The Democrats traded the racists to the Republicans in
1964.  LBJ got the Civil Rights Act and Voting Rights Act.

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_Rights_Act_of_1964

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_Rights_Act_of_1965

( but see
 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shelby_County_v._Holder )

The Republicans got Strom Thurmond, Jesse Helms, Albert
Watson, and their supporters and, in the fullness of time,
they've gotten David Duke, Richard Spencer, and Alex Jones.
These guys never wavered in the Trump support from the
beginning to the end - thea know Trump is really with them
and glad to have them on board.  Other Republicans have
wavered in their Trumpiness, at least at first.

==

Still believe in leaders as character role models?
The 2018 election is a national referendum on leadership
character, among other things.  For this one specific
moment in history, voters interested in character need to
vote for character.  That means in almost every instance,
a vote for Republicans, Libertarians, Greens, independents,
or staying home because it doesn't matter - is a vote
that character doesn't matter.  An astonishing number
of House and even Senate seats and Governorships are
too close too call this year - meaning individual votes
count as never before.  In almost every instance, at this
specific moment, the only effective vote for character is
to vote Democratic.

Are your favorite candidates role models for youth?
Does those candidates consider Trump to be a role model
for youth?

Third party affiliation in a two-party system is a
self-indulgent luxury -

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/theory.html#registration

The fix to that is electoral reforms that enable third
parties and independents to gain traction - ranked-choice
voting and multimember districts -

 https://www.fairvote.org/

Maybe someday a conservative-progressive or
progressive-conservative party will gain such traction -

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/theory.html#conservative

== There's more at

 https://www.facebook.com/pg/politicalscrapbooknet/posts

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/facebook.html

 http://www.political-theses.net/

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net

==

topic election 2

=====

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engagedrank -
ereact 204
eshares 46
frequency 1.3412782485876
indicator actions:link_click
qualityrank -
results 1635
spent 400

==========


Why are these Republicans voting for Democrats?

They hold many traditional conservative Republican points
of view, and they aren't going to become Democrats, but
they are voting Democratic this time.

 https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/miracle-on-the-hudson-pilot-comes-out-against-gop-this-is-not-the-america-i-love

 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/vote-against-every-single-republican-columnist-urges-senate-candidates-dodge-on-trumps-birthright-citizenship-plan-2018-11-01

 https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/394377-george-will-is-right-vote-the-gop-out

 https://washingtonmonthly.com/2018/08/10/you-cant-save-the-gop-by-electing-republican-senators/

What happens to them after the election?  They'll have
to decide based on the results of the election and
how the remaining Republicans react to those results.
If the GOP loses control of Congress and decides that it
lost because it wasn't Trumpist enough, then it will be
truly a lost cause.  Democrats will continue to figure
out how to attract back those who voted for Obama and
then Trump.     The Democrats will be glad to leave the
racists, anti-semites, and fascists to the Trumpists,
so they can follow the path of the American Independent
Party to oblivion -

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Independent_Party

So how are you going to vote?

==

The Obama voters that voted for Trump are voting Democratic
again -

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/opinion/when-trump-voters-go-for-democrats.html

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#First%20Trump%20Constituency

This constituency is desperate - for something to be
hopeful about.  But it sounds like the change that they
are hoping for can't come from Trumpists.

Meanwhile, in another universe, another faithful Republican
constituency is getting driven away -

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/us/politics/republicans-trump-house.html

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#Third%20Trump%20Constituency

This constituency is disgusted.

What about that other Trump constituency that comes to his
campaign rallies - even though they're either two years
late or two years early.  They're with Trump forever,
because nobody else will will admit to wanting them -

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#Second%20Trump%20Constituency

Trump accepts the second constituency's unconditional
love at his campaign rallies, which Trump craves like a
junkie his junk.  In return he offers them all the words
and chants they want.   And not much else.  In fact,
probably less...

Consider the history of the social safety net.

Social security - Republicans mostly voted in favor -

 https://www.ssa.gov/history/tally.html

Medicare -  Republicans opposed in the Senate, split in
the House -

 https://www.ssa.gov/history/tally65.html

Obamacare - No Republican votes

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patient_Protection_and_Affordable_Care_Act#Legislative_history

even though it was based on Mitt Romney's popular
Masscare -

 http://www.nbcnews.com/id/44854320/ns/politics-decision_2012/t/white-house-used-mitt-romney-health-care-law-blueprint-federal-law

If you want to see how it adds up -

 https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_budget_detail_2017bs22017n_0010

Seeing how it adds up, McConnell's regretfully come to a
sad conclusion - we'll have to reduce the social safety
net to pay for billionaire tax cuts.

 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-16/mcconnell-blames-entitlements-not-gop-for-rising-deficits

But he wants the Democrats to take the lead on fiscal
responsibility because the Trumpists reject the notion
out of hand.

But wait, there's more!

According to Trump advisor Kudlow, a minimum wage is a
terrible idea, when we could be passing more billionaire
tax cuts instead -

 https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/larry-kudlow-federal-minimum-wage_us_5bdb1c94e4b0da7bfc17d59a

==

So how did we get here?   Consider the evolution of the
Republican Party - from liberation to identity politics.

The Republican Party defeated the Confederacy, freed
the slaves, and then got stuck in the House trying
to decide the Hayes-Tilden election of 1876.  So the
Corrupt Bargain was struck - the Republican Hayes became
President, and withdrew Federal troops from the South,
ending Reconstruction and giving the unrepentant southern
Democrats a free hand for 80 years -

 https://historyengine.richmond.edu/episodes/view/317

until the Supreme Court finally struck down "separate
but equal" and the Republican President Eisenhower
enforced it with Federal troops -

 http://www.americaslibrary.gov/aa/eisenhower/aa_eisenhower_littlerock_1.html

leading to founding of the John Birch Society with their
"Impeach Earl Warren" campaign and claims that
Eisenhower was a Communist traitor -

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Birch_Society

Goldwater and William Buckley and many other Republican
leaders kept their distance from the Birchers, and in 1964
Goldwater lost by a landslide to LBJ.  Goldwater was too
far right, but of course the lunatic fringe thought he was
not far right ENOUGH.   But Goldwater opposed the Civil
Rights Act of 1964

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_Rights_Act_of_1964

and the Voting Rights Act of 1965

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_Rights_Act_of_1965

and that encouraged many Dixiecrats to abandon the
Democratic Party, led by Strom Thurmond

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Senators_who_switched_parties

and Albert Watson

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Representatives_who_switched_parties

Their racism made many traditional Republicans nervous, but
Richard Nixon had been rebuilding a political organization
for another run for President.  Nixon realized that,
properly handled, the former Dixiecrats were an asset
rather than a liability.  According to Haldeman,
"Nixon emphasized that you have to face the fact
that the whole problem is really the blacks. The key is to
devise a system that recognized this while not appearing
to."

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_strategy

Although the RNC chair apologized for the Southern Strategy
in 2005, he was speaking too soon.

In 2009, Obama was elected President, and the Tea Party
was born

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tea_Party_movement

Since Obama's politics were not much different from Bill
Clinton's, it's hard to escape the conclusion that racism
was an important factor in the rise of the Tea Party.
It was not explicitly racist, but it was part of the
oppose-Obama-on-everything movement within the Republican
party

 https://www.politico.com/story/2010/10/the-gops-no-compromise-pledge-044311

which certainly appealed to all the racists.

Trump's great insight was that by signaling (subtly at
first, blatantly later) to the racists and and anti-semites
and fascists, they'd stick with him forever, and by other
means he could also attract the Obama voters who were
hoping for a change for the better.  Of course, the reason
there hadn't been as much change for the better as hoped,
is that the Republicans were blocking Obama on everything.
Even so, Obamacare passed and the economy as a whole has
been recovering since 2009.

But the Republicans cleverly convinced enough voters that
they were against Obamacare, even though polls asking about
any specific aspect of Obamacare, but without mentioning
"Obamacare", such as affordable coverage for
pre-existing conditions, found quite widespread support.
Trump could easily promise to repeal Obamacare and come
up with better coverage for more people at lower cost.

And while the economy as a whole has been recovering,
the recovery has been uneven, especially in industries
undone by technological advance or their environmental
costs.     Trump could easily promise to turn back the
tide of technology and and the tide of rising oceans and
environmental degradation.

And that's how Trump barely won.      Since then he has
done a great job of keeping the racists, anti-semites,
fascists, and anti-intellectuals in his camp, but those
who had voted for Obama and then Trump have noticed that
he hasn't really done anything for them after all.

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#First%20Trump%20Constituency

So now he has to create distractions of foreign menace
of impoverished peasant invasions, and somehow avoid the
distractions of domestic menace by his hard-core followers
who took him too literally and too seriously.

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#Second%20Trump%20Constituency

 https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/nation/2018/10/31/george-soros-and-migrant-caravan-how-lie-multiplied-online/1824633002/

 https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/11/03/the-republican-party-and-white-identity

But sticking too close to his white-identity-politics
hard-core base may be his undoing.    Cults of personality
have not lasted long in American politics.

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cult_of_personality

The Trumpist Party has no fixed ideology beyond the whims
and prejudices of the leader, who owes nothing to the past
or to the future, but mutually supports and abets other
personality cults all over the world.

Don't like it?     The 2018 election is a national
referendum on ideas vs personality cults.       For this
one specific moment in history, voters interested in
ideas need to vote for ideas and against personality
cults.  That means in almost every instance, a vote for
Republicans, Libertarians, Greens, independents, or staying
home because it doesn't matter - is a vote for personality
cults.     An astonishing number of House and even Senate
seats and Governorships are too close too call this year -
meaning individual votes count as never before.  In almost
every instance, at this specific moment, the only effective
vote against personality cults is to vote Democratic.

==

A president who wants to build a legacy needs a tent
large enough to weather various kinds of crises among
sub-constituencies.  Trump seems uninterested and unable
to do so.  He's indeed a great disrupter, as claimed,
but not a great builder, which also was claimed.

 https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/10/trump-is-still-blaming-the-far-left-media-for-americas-divisiveness/

The nation will recover eventually, as it has from other
fundamental crises.  The outlook for the Republican Party
is not so certain, and recalls the fate of the Whigs -

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whig_Party_(United_States)#Decline

The Republicans might split into a hard-core identitarian
Trumpist party and one espousing more traditional
Republican values.    Hard to guess which one will retain
the Republican name!  Trump certainly likes to see his
name in gold on everything he touches.    It would be
good for the Republicans to finally excise their cancer
of racism, anti-semitism, and fascism.  After years of
berating the Democrats for identity politics, it's time
for the Republicans to take the same medicine.

The Democrats could go the same factional route if success
went to their heads and they got too far ahead of the
middle of the electorate.  That might eventually lead to
a new majority coalition in the middle for a while.

If the Democrats are smart, they will become the new
majority coalition somewhat left of the middle, far
enough left to have ideals and goals, yet close enough
to the middle and the left to keep both in the tent.
No small task.

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/theory.html#conservative

==

So how are you going to vote?

There's more at

 https://www.facebook.com/pg/politicalscrapbooknet/posts

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/facebook.html

 http://www.political-theses.net/

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net

==

topic election 2

=====

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==========


Why are these Republicans voting for Democrats?

They hold many traditional conservative Republican points
of view, and they aren't going to become Democrats, but
they are voting Democratic this time.

 https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/413756-pilot-sully-sullenberger-this-is-not-the-america-i-know-and

 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/vote-against-every-single-republican-columnist-urges-senate-candidates-dodge-on-trumps-birthright-citizenship-plan-2018-11-01

 https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/394377-george-will-is-right-vote-the-gop-out

 https://washingtonmonthly.com/2018/08/10/you-cant-save-the-gop-by-electing-republican-senators/

What happens to them after the election?  They'll have
to decide based on the results of the election and
how the remaining Republicans react to those results.
If the GOP loses control of Congress and decides that it
lost because it wasn't Trumpist enough, then it will be
truly a lost cause.  Democrats will continue to figure
out how to attract back those who voted for Obama and
then Trump.     The Democrats will be glad to leave the
racists, anti-semites, and fascists to the Trumpists,
so they can follow the path of the American Independent
Party to oblivion -

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Independent_Party

So how are you going to vote?

==

The Obama voters that voted for Trump are voting Democratic
again -

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/opinion/when-trump-voters-go-for-democrats.html

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#First%20Trump%20Constituency

This constituency is desperate - for something to be
hopeful about.  But it sounds like the change that they
are hoping for can't come from Trumpists.

Meanwhile, in another universe, another faithful Republican
constituency is getting driven away -

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/us/politics/republicans-trump-house.html

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#Third%20Trump%20Constituency

This constituency is disgusted.

What about that other Trump constituency that comes to his
campaign rallies - even though they're either two years
late or two years early.  They're with Trump forever,
because nobody else will will admit to wanting them -

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#Second%20Trump%20Constituency

Trump accepts the second constituency's unconditional
love at his campaign rallies, which Trump craves like a
junkie his junk.  In return he offers them all the words
and chants they want.   And not much else.  In fact,
probably less...

Consider the history of the social safety net.

Social security - Republicans mostly voted in favor -

 https://www.ssa.gov/history/tally.html

Medicare -  Republicans opposed in the Senate, split in
the House -

 https://www.ssa.gov/history/tally65.html

Obamacare - No Republican votes

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patient_Protection_and_Affordable_Care_Act#Legislative_history

even though it was based on Mitt Romney's popular
Masscare -

 http://www.nbcnews.com/id/44854320/ns/politics-decision_2012/t/white-house-used-mitt-romney-health-care-law-blueprint-federal-law/#.W9fGV5xRf0M

If you want to see how it adds up -

 https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/federal_budget_detail_2017bs22017n_0010

Seeing how it adds up, McConnell's regretfully come to a
sad conclusion - we'll have to reduce the social safety
net to pay for billionaire tax cuts.

 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-16/mcconnell-blames-entitlements-not-gop-for-rising-deficits

But he wants the Democrats to take the lead on fiscal
responsibility because the Trumpists reject the notion
out of hand.

But wait, there's more!

According to Trump advisor Kudlow, a minimum wage is a
terrible idea, when we could be passing more billionaire
tax cuts instead -

 https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/larry-kudlow-federal-minimum-wage_us_5bdb1c94e4b0da7bfc17d59a

==

So how did we get here?   Consider the evolution of the
Republican Party - from liberation to identity politics.

The Republican Party defeated the Confederacy, freed
the slaves, and then got stuck in the House trying
to decide the Hayes-Tilden election of 1876.  So the
Corrupt Bargain was struck - the Republican Hayes became
President, and withdrew Federal troops from the South,
ending Reconstruction and giving the unrepentant southern
Democrats a free hand for 80 years -

 https://historyengine.richmond.edu/episodes/view/317

until the Supreme Court finally struck down "separate
but equal" and the Republican President Eisenhower
enforced it with Federal troops -

 http://www.americaslibrary.gov/aa/eisenhower/aa_eisenhower_littlerock_1.html

leading to founding of the John Birch Society with their
"Impeach Earl Warren" campaign and claims that
Eisenhower was a Communist traitor -

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Birch_Society

Goldwater and William Buckley and many other Republican
leaders kept their distance from the Birchers, and in 1964
Goldwater lost by a landslide to LBJ.  Goldwater was too
far right, but of course the lunatic fringe thought he was
not far right ENOUGH.   But Goldwater opposed the Civil
Rights Act of 1964

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_Rights_Act_of_1964

and the Voting Rights Act of 1965

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_Rights_Act_of_1965

and that encouraged many Dixiecrats to abandon the
Democratic Party, led by Strom Thurmond

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Senators_who_switched_parties

and Albert Watson

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Representatives_who_switched_parties

Their racism made many traditional Republicans nervous, but
Richard Nixon had been rebuilding a political organization
for another run for President.  Nixon realized that,
properly handled, the former Dixiecrats were an asset
rather than a liability.  According to Haldeman,
"Nixon emphasized that you have to face the fact
that the whole problem is really the blacks. The key is to
devise a system that recognized this while not appearing
to."

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_strategy

Although the RNC chair apologized for the Southern Strategy
in 2005, he was speaking too soon.

In 2009, Obama was elected President, and the Tea Party
was born

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tea_Party_movement

Since Obama's politics were not much different from Bill
Clinton's, it's hard to escape the conclusion that racism
was an important factor in the rise of the Tea Party.
It was not explicitly racist, but it was part of the
oppose-Obama-on-everything movement within the Republican
party

 https://www.politico.com/story/2010/10/the-gops-no-compromise-pledge-044311

which certainly appealed to all the racists.

Trump's great insight was that by signaling (subtly at
first, blatantly later) to the racists and and anti-semites
and fascists, they'd stick with him forever, and by other
means he could also attract the Obama voters who were
hoping for a change for the better.  Of course, the reason
there hadn't been as much change for the better as hoped,
is that the Republicans were blocking Obama on everything.
Even so, Obamacare passed and the economy as a whole has
been recovering since 2009.

But the Republicans cleverly convinced enough voters that
they were against Obamacare, even though polls asking about
any specific aspect of Obamacare, but without mentioning
"Obamacare", such as affordable coverage for
pre-existing conditions, found quite widespread support.
Trump could easily promise to repeal Obamacare and come
up with better coverage for more people at lower cost.

And while the economy as a whole has been recovering,
the recovery has been uneven, especially in industries
undone by technological advance or their environmental
costs.     Trump could easily promise to turn back the
tide of technology and and the tide of rising oceans and
environmental degradation.

And that's how Trump barely won.      Since then he has
done a great job of keeping the racists, anti-semites,
fascists, and anti-intellectuals in his camp, but those
who had voted for Obama and then Trump have noticed that
he hasn't really done anything for them after all.

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#First%20Trump%20Constituency

So now he has to create distractions of foreign menace
of impoverished peasant invasions, and somehow avoid the
distractions of domestic menace by his hard-core followers
who took him too literally and too seriously.

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#Second%20Trump%20Constituency

 https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/nation/2018/10/31/george-soros-and-migrant-caravan-how-lie-multiplied-online/1824633002/

 https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/11/03/the-republican-party-and-white-identity

But sticking too close to his white-identity-politics
hard-core base may be his undoing.    Cults of personality
have not lasted long in American politics.

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cult_of_personality

The Trumpist Party has no fixed ideology beyond the whims
and prejudices of the leader, who owes nothing to the past
or to the future, but mutually supports and abets other
personality cults all over the world.

Don't like it?     The 2018 election is a national
referendum on ideas vs personality cults.       For this
one specific moment in history, voters interested in
ideas need to vote for ideas and against personality
cults.  That means in almost every instance, a vote for
Republicans, Libertarians, Greens, independents, or staying
home because it doesn't matter - is a vote for personality
cults.     An astonishing number of House and even Senate
seats and Governorships are too close too call this year -
meaning individual votes count as never before.  In almost
every instance, at this specific moment, the only effective
vote against personality cults is to vote Democratic.

==

A president who wants to build a legacy needs a tent
large enough to weather various kinds of crises among
sub-constituencies.  Trump seems uninterested and unable
to do so.  He's indeed a great disrupter, as claimed,
but not a great builder, which also was claimed.

 https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/10/trump-is-still-blaming-the-far-left-media-for-americas-divisiveness/

The nation will recover eventually, as it has from other
fundamental crises.  The outlook for the Republican Party
is not so certain, and recalls the fate of the Whigs -

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whig_Party_(United_States)#Decline

The Republicans might split into a hard-core identitarian
Trumpist party and one espousing more traditional
Republican values.    Hard to guess which one will retain
the Republican name!  Trump certainly likes to see his
name in gold on everything he touches.    It would be
good for the Republicans to finally excise their cancer
of racism, anti-semitism, and fascism.  After years of
berating the Democrats for identity politics, it's time
for the Republicans to take the same medicine.

The Democrats could go the same factional route if success
went to their heads and they got too far ahead of the
middle of the electorate.  That might eventually lead to
a new majority coalition in the middle for a while.

If the Democrats are smart, they will become the new
majority coalition somewhat left of the middle, far
enough left to have ideals and goals, yet close enough
to the middle and the left to keep both in the tent.
No small task.

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/theory.html#conservative

==

So how are you going to vote?

There's more at

 https://www.facebook.com/pg/politicalscrapbooknet/posts

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/facebook.html

 http://www.political-theses.net/

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net

==

topic election 2

=====

comments 3
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type Link

==========


Every vote counts!

Texas edition -
 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/02/opinion/cruz-might-win-the-senate-but-the-democrats-are-winning-texas.html

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/02/us/politics/beto-cruz-elections.html

NY edition -
 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/02/opinion/midterms-new-york-new-jersey.html

California edition -
 https://www.fightbackca.com/

topic election

=====

comments 2
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type Link

==========


What happens after the election

Making the most plausible guesses at this time - that
leaning districts will end up the way they are leaning now,
and that tossup districts will be decided on the basis of
local factors unique to each district, and so about half
will go one way and half the other - Democrats will gain
a narrow majority in the House and the Republicans will
retain a narrow majority in the Senate.     Even the most
optimistic Democratic projections do not foresee enough
votes to get around a McConnell filibuster in the Senate.

 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/us/elections/house-race-ratings.html

 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/us/elections/senate-race-ratings.html

So then what happens?      It's hard to imagine Mueller
coming up with anything that isn't already known or assumed
that would suddenly convince a third of the Republican
Senators to admit that they've been completely wrong all
along, and to vote for impeachment, no matter how much
they'd rather deal with a President Pence.      So that
seems to be a dead end right now.       As a campaign
maneuver, the timing would seem to be best for a Democratic
House vote for impeachment in  the spring of 2020,
during the primaries, while the Republican Senators are
campaigning for re-election, and perhaps subtly for higher
office, before the Republican presidential convention.
The idea is to force the Senators to take a stand that
will either cost them base support in the primaries or
will cost them independent support in the general election.
They will mightily resist that.

Meanwhile the Democrats should perhaps study the people
that have been most successful in getting Trump to do
their bidding - foreign dictators.       Take a Democratic
proposal, make some very minor policy concessions to Trump,
then put his name on it in gold letters and present it
for signing at an enormous photo-up, preferably with
a big parade.      Or devise a compromise deal to pass
some psychologically important policy of minor actual
significance, as a package with something that is really
important to Democrats.

Alas, a more likely outcome is that the Senate and the
House will pass bills that are always DOA in the other
chamber.      And so Congress will do nothing bad for
two years.     And nothing good.    Figuring out how to
get Trump to sign what little might emerge will be the
least of the challenges.

All of which is not to say that the 2018 election doesn't
matter.     If the Republicans retain control of both
houses, Trump will be fully unleashed to be fully Trump.
So get out and vote.

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/opinion/republican-party-lies.html

=====

comments 1
hide 1
impact 2490
impactrate 0
likeimpress 2
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posted 2018-11-01
ratio 1
react 60
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shares 3
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sumclicks 53
title What happens after the election
topic election
wordrate 0
words 415
ID 743084762702712
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/743084762702712
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oreach 74
posted "11/01/2018 03:51:58 PM"
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type Link

==========


Former Republicans chime in -

They hold many traditional conservative Republican points
of view, and they aren't going to become Democrats, but
they are voting Democratic this time.       What happens to
them after the election?   They'll have to decide based
on the results of the election and how the remaining
Republicans react to those results.

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/we-saved-155-lives-on-the-hudson-now-lets-vote-for-leaders-wholl-protect-us-all/2018/10/29/554fd0e6-d87c-11e8-a10f-b51546b10756_story.html

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/sick-and-tired-of-trump-heres-what-to-do/2018/10/31/72d9021e-dd26-11e8-b3f0-62607289efee_story.html

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/vote-against-the-gop-this-november/2018/06/22/a6378306-7575-11e8-b4b7-308400242c2e_story.html

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-only-way-to-save-the-gop-is-to-defeat-it/2018/08/09/dc70b75a-9c10-11e8-b60b-1c897f17e185_story.html

If the GOP loses control of Congress and decides that
it lost because it wasn't Trumpy enough, then it will
be truly a lost cause.       Democrats will continue to
figure out how to attract back those who voted for Obama
and then Trump.     The Democrats will be glad to leave
the racists, anti-semites, and fascists to the Trumpists.
They can follow the path of the American Independent Party
to oblivion -

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Independent_Party

=====

comments 9
hide 2
impact 2381
impactrate 0
likeimpress 15
negative 2
posted 2018-11-01
ratio 0
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title Former Republicans chime in -
topic election
wordrate 0
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ID 743068179371037
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/743068179371037
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negclicks 2
negusers 2
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oreach 130
posted "11/01/2018 03:06:23 PM"
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type Link

==========


Dirty tricksters alive and well

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/30/us/disinfo-text-messages-mailers.html

In short, "free" campaign information in paper
mail, email, newspaper/radio/TV ads, phone texts, or
anywhere on the internet has to be presumed guilty until
proven innocent.  Courts rulings mean that there is no
effective penalty or remedy for deceptive campaigning.

=====

comments 1
impact 86
impactrate 0
likeimpress 5
negative 0
posted 2018-11-01
ratio 3
react 19
reactrate 0
shares 1
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 12
title Dirty tricksters alive and well
topic election
wordrate 0
words 45
ID 742890282722160
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/742890282722160
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oimpress 99
oreach 63
posted "11/01/2018 07:49:43 AM"
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==========


The Obama voters that voted for Trump are voting Democratic
again -

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/opinion/when-trump-voters-go-for-democrats.html

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/for-a-groundbreaking-candidate-in-west-virginia-big-money-and-attention-come-with-downsides/2018/10/31/84e0f4f8-d6d2-11e8-aeb7-ddcad4a0a54e_story.html

But it sounds like the change that they are hoping for
can't come from Washington.

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#First%20Trump%20Constituency

This first constituency is desperate.

Meanwhile, in another universe, another faithful Republican
constituency is getting driven away -

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/us/politics/republicans-trump-house.html

Think of it as the third Trump constituency -

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#Third%20Trump%20Constituency

This third constituency is disgusted.

What about the second constituency?       They're with
Trump forever, because nobody else will offer them such
unconditional love -

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#Second%20Trump%20Constituency

Of course, Trump doesn't really offer anybody
unconditional anything, but he certainly accepts the second
constituency's unconditional love at his campaign rallies,
which Trump craves like a junkie his junk.

=====

impact 302
impactrate 0
likeimpress 9
negative 0
posted 2018-11-01
priority 1
ratio 2
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shares 6
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 13
title The Obama voters that voted for Trump are voting Democratic
topic election
wordrate 0
words 108
ID 742885859389269
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/742885859389269
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oreach 76
posted "11/01/2018 07:42:57 AM"
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type Link

==========


Each of us, as part of our national defense,

should register and vote this November

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-midterms-will-be-the-most-secure-elections-weve-ever-held/2018/10/31/e60ff8d6-d930-11e8-9559-712cbf726d1c_story.html

The threat of foreign interference is no excuse not
to vote.

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/business/midterm-election-russia-cyber.html

Nor is a claim that there's no difference between the
candidates or the parties.  But if you need a lame excuse
for leaving your fate to others, you could try one of
these -

 http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/10/12-young-people-on-why-they-probably-wont-vote.html

=====

comments 1
impact 108
impactrate 0
likeimpress 10
negative 0
posted 2018-10-31
ratio 8
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sharesrate 0
sumclicks 4
title Each of us, as part of our national defense,
topic election
wordrate 0
words 60
ID 742563722754816
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/742563722754816
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oimpress 233
oreach 158
posted "10/31/2018 03:41:03 PM"
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type Link

==========


There's a bunch of Republican Congressional Representatives
looking forward to an early retirement

 https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/10/30/california-house-races-outside-spending-michael-bloomberg/

The Republican national PAC's aren't even bothering to
defend some of the hopeless cases - they're doing triage
nationally -

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/gop-scrambles-to-save-suddenly-vulnerable-house-candidates-in-trump-districts/2018/10/29/ddfb0c02-dbc5-11e8-85df-7a6b4d25cfbb_story.html

There's still time for you to be part of the problem,
or part of the solution, depending on how you look at it -

 https://www.fightbackca.com/

Longer term, we need a way to undo Citizens United.
The Supreme Court caused that problem, and Mitch McConnell
continues to do his best to insure that it continues
to cause that problem.      So another remedy will be
required.

 http://www.americanpromise.net/

 https://democracy21.org/

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/democracy.html#corporate%20donations

=====

comments 1
impact 96
impactrate 0
likeimpress 2
negative 0
posted 2018-10-30
ratio 3
react 10
reactrate 0
shares 1
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 6
title There's a bunch of Republican Congressional Representatives
topic election
wordrate 0
words 96
ID 741829726161549
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/741829726161549
audclicks 6
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likeuimpress 38
likeusers 2
likeuusers 28
matchedotherclicks 6
oimpress 70
oreach 34
posted "10/30/2018 07:10:04 AM"
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type Link

==========


Bakersfield deserves better - and so does the rest of
the country

Billionaire Jews buying the election for Democrats?

 https://www.jta.org/2018/10/24/top-headlines/house-majority-leader-kevin-mccarthy-deletes-tweet-saying-george-soros-tom-steyer-michael-bloomberg-buying-years-elections

Was McCarthy afraid the Democrats have stolen the
Republicans strategy book, as if it were a big secret?
Or did somebody explain to him how his campaigns are
financed?

The big secret is the dark money, but what we do know  is
big enough -

 https://www.opensecrets.org/overview/topindivs.php

Adelson is at the top of this list.   Note that the Kochs
aren't even on this list - their money, and that of many
others, is mostly dark.

 https://www.marketplace.org/2018/10/23/elections/billionaire-donations-are-driving-midterm-spending

As for McCarthy, let's all help him to an early retirement,
if not this time, then next time.

 https://www.fightbackca.com/

Where does he get his tweetable thoughts then?

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ask-the-questions-about-right-wing-terrorists-that-we-ask-about-islamist-militants/2018/10/28/64403b32-daec-11e8-b3f0-62607289efee_story.html

For the bigger picture, it's essential to get the dark
money out of politics and the big money too -

 http://www.americanpromise.net/

 https://democracy21.org/

But it will be a long hard road.    Mitch McConnell and his
supporters have worked long and hard to build a Supreme
Court and Federal judiciary that will protect the idea
that unlimited dark money is protected free speech.

=====

comments 7
impact 761
impactrate 0
likeimpress 7
negative 0
posted 2018-10-29
priority 1
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title Bakersfield deserves better - and so does the rest of
topic election
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words 177
ID 741352942875894
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/741352942875894
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oimpress 183
oreach 130
posted "10/29/2018 08:30:44 AM"
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type Link

==========


A conservative argument for a split Congress

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/27/opinion/sunday/midterms-elections-2018-senate.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

A Republican Senate and a Democratic House seem quite
plausible in January - perhaps the most plausible
outcome.        It sounds like a prescription for two
more years of do-nothing Congress, except for installing
more reactionary judges who will do their best to
institutionalize Republican power.

But even if Democrats get a majority in the Senate next
month, it still won't be enough to enact anything positive
against a Republican filibuster.    But it will end the
installation of reactionary judges.

=====

impact 120
impactrate 0
likeimpress 2
negative 0
posted 2018-10-28
priority 1
ratio 4
react 14
reactrate 0
shares 2
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 10
title A conservative argument for a split Congress
topic election
wordrate 0
words 86
ID 741089509568904
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/741089509568904
audclicks 10
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likeusers 2
likeuusers 50
matchedotherclicks 10
oimpress 98
oreach 66
posted "10/28/2018 09:00:42 PM"
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==========


Nothing new about indicted or convicted criminals running
for office - it's been worse -

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/26/opinion/disaster-candidates-beyond-trump.html

What's new is that being a corrupt self-serving opportunist
is now considered a positive on your resume rather than
a negative.       The tone is set from the top.

=====

comments 1
impact 60
impactrate 0
likeimpress 3
negative 0
posted 2018-10-27
ratio 4
react 14
reactrate 0
shares 2
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 8
title Nothing new about indicted or convicted criminals running
topic election
wordrate 0
words 43
ID 740102953000893
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/740102953000893
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oimpress 90
oreach 58
posted "10/27/2018 06:41:19 AM"
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==========


Henry Waxman warns Democrats - don't be like Republicans

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/democrats-beware-overzealous-investigations-will-come-back-to-bite-you/2018/10/23/4629820a-d3c8-11e8-b2d2-f397227b43f0_story.html

If Democrats regain control of the House, they need to
set some good precedents and procedures that they can be
proud of and thankful for, no matter what the future holds.

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/kevin-mccarthys-truthful-gaffe/2015/09/30/f12a9fac-67a8-11e5-8325-a42b5a459b1e_story.html

If your intentions and actions are honorable, you don't
have to worry about accidentally telling the truth.

Remember, as always, the next election in 2020 will be
decided by the swing votes in the middle, and not by the
ideological bases.

=====

impact 138
impactrate 0
likeimpress 4
negative 0
posted 2018-10-24
ratio 3
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sumclicks 12
title Henry Waxman warns Democrats - don't be like Republicans
topic election
wordrate 0
words 81
ID 738493156495206
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/738493156495206
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likeuimpress 62
likeusers 4
likeuusers 49
matchedotherclicks 12
oimpress 95
oreach 60
posted "10/24/2018 06:25:51 AM"
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==========


Where the money goes and where it comes from

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/whos-getting-outspent/

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/politics/superpac-donors-2018/

One hopes that it's well spent - since there is basically
no remedy or penalty for flagrantly false campaign
material, you can pretty much ignore anything unsolicited
that comes in the mail, email, radio, tv.... and try to
find relatively reliable sources of information from real
journalism and civic and other organizations that you
deem trustworthy.

=====

impact 65
impactrate 0
likeimpress 2
negative 0
posted 2018-10-23
ratio 3
react 10
reactrate 0
shares 1
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 7
title Where the money goes and where it comes from
topic election
wordrate 0
words 65
ID 738156946528827
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/738156946528827
audclicks 7
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likeusers 2
likeuusers 29
matchedlinkclicks 3
matchedotherclicks 4
oimpress 70
oreach 35
posted "10/23/2018 03:57:10 PM"
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==========


Unprecedented interest in midterm election, unprecedented
lack of interest in poll work

77% of registered voters plan to vote -

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/battleground-house-districts-remain-close-in-new-poll/2018/10/22/e6c77a32-d63e-11e8-aeb7-ddcad4a0a54e_story.html

1000 more poll workers needed in Silicon Valley -

 https://www.stanforddaily.com/2018/10/12/bay-area-counties-scrambling-to-find-enough-poll-workers-for-november-elections/

That's what full employment is all about.      When was
the last time you passed a retail store or restaurant that
didn't have a Help Wanted sign?  But illegal immigrants
can't work at polls, even though they'd be willing to
accept the tiny wages.

=====

comments 5
impact 367
impactrate 0
likeimpress 5
negative 0
posted 2018-10-23
ratio 8
react 51
reactrate 0
shares 8
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 33
title Unprecedented interest in midterm election, unprecedented
topic election
wordrate 0
words 72
ID 737965836547938
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/737965836547938
audclicks 35
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impress 570
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likeimpress 5
likeuimpress 57
likeusers 5
likeuusers 52
matchedlinkclicks 6
matchedotherclicks 27
oimpress 573
oreach 409
posted "10/23/2018 07:35:26 AM"
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==========


Negroes for Goldwater

Prior to the 1964 election, Newsweek published an
interview with the head of an organization with "the
exclusive-sounding name of Negroes for Goldwater."
Maybe they should have been called "Negro Millionaires
for Goldwater." You only need two to make a plural.

But they've been matched for exclusive-sounding-ness -

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/10/19/pro-trump-group-tells-black-voters-support-republicans-because-white-democrats-will-be-lynching-black-folk-again/

"Black Americans for the President's Agenda"  ??
Even the Republican candidate in that district denounced
their ad.

Came as a big surprise to the SF Giants too -

 https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/SF-Giants-owner-gave-1K-to-PAC-behind-racist-ad-13321897.php

=====

comments 7
hide 1
hideall 1
impact 1138
impactrate 0
likeimpress 32
negative 2
posted 2018-10-19
ratio 3
react 144
reactrate 0
shares 12
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 91
title Negroes for Goldwater
topic election
wordrate 0
words 79
ID 736023813408807
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/736023813408807
audclicks 91
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commentsimpress 7
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likeuimpress 231
likeusers 32
likeuusers 164
matchedlinkclicks 24
matchedotherclicks 67
negclicks 2
negusers 2
oimpress 616
oreach 440
posted "10/19/2018 09:01:47 PM"
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==========


If you are going to be inconsistent - you might as well
be consistently inconsistent

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/what-do-republicans-need-to-win-selective-memory-loss/2018/10/19/257aefe0-d3a9-11e8-8c22-fa2ef74bd6d6_story.html

=====

comments 3
hide 1
impact 41
impactrate 0
likeimpress 5
negative 1
posted 2018-10-19
ratio 4
react 27
reactrate 0
shares 3
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 15
title If you are going to be inconsistent - you might as well
topic election
wordrate 0
words 15
ID 735925923418596
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/735925923418596
audclicks 15
audreach 9
commentsimpress 3
commentsusers 3
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hideclicks 1
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impress 150
likeclickusers 11
likeimpress 5
likeuimpress 93
likeusers 5
likeuusers 74
matchedlinkclicks 2
matchedotherclicks 13
negclicks 1
negusers 1
oimpress 150
oreach 112
posted "10/19/2018 05:36:19 PM"
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==========


The first Trump constituency is still hoping for something
better -

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-trump-country-republican-candidates-this-year-fall-flat/2018/10/14/c48e99fe-cd7f-11e8-a3e6-44daa3d35ede_story.html

Remember Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio?

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#First%20Trump%20Constituency

The second Trump constituency is with him forever, though.

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#Second%20Trump%20Constituency

=====

comments 1
impact 53
impactrate 0
likeimpress 6
negative 0
posted 2018-10-14
ratio 3
react 21
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shares 2
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 12
title The first Trump constituency is still hoping for something
topic election
wordrate 0
words 25
ID 733368727007649
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/733368727007649
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likeuusers 61
matchedlinkclicks 3
matchedotherclicks 9
oimpress 117
oreach 77
posted "10/14/2018 06:02:06 PM"
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==========


How safe are your elections?

 https://apnews.com/337d855367504fa9a96596b6150af37a

It's all about the money and the secrecy - unwittingly
abetted by some unusual suspects - ACLU, League of Women
Voters, National Federation of the Blind.

Most technologists understand that open-source systems
are inherently more secure than closed-source systems.
But election officials are rarely technologists.  They
make do with what the vendors offer, because of lack of
funding to do better, and because of Federal directives.
Members of Congress are likewise rarely technologists.
There are lots of parties that don't like paper trails.
The Russians are just the tip of the iceberg.

Understanding the extent of the vulnerabilities, nobody can
say that foreign or domestic interference hasn't affected
the outcome of elections.     There are only a few  vendors
of American voting machines, and one is a Canadian company!

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/26/magazine/election-security-crisis-midterms.html

=====

impact 40
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2018-10-11
priority 1
ratio 13
react 3
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 3
title How safe are your elections?
topic election
wordrate 0
words 133
ID 731604217184100
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/731604217184100
audclicks 3
audreach 1
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likeuusers 33
matchedotherclicks 3
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posted "10/11/2018 07:33:31 AM"
postotherclicks 1
reach 39
type Link

==========


Where the voters' true interests lie

It won't work for racists, but those who voted for Trump
for economic reasons want to know what he's actually doing
for them

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/heres-where-democrats-are-really-picking-up-trump-voters/2018/10/10/f4970228-ccbf-11e8-920f-dd52e1ae4570_story.html

=====

impact 17
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2018-10-10
ratio 5
react 6
reactrate 0
shares 1
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 5
title Where the voters' true interests lie
topic election
wordrate 0
words 29
ID 731273943883794
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/731273943883794
audclicks 5
audreach 3
engaged 3
impress 50
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likeuimpress 27
likeuusers 23
matchedlinkclicks 1
matchedotherclicks 4
oimpress 50
oreach 32
posted "10/10/2018 09:41:29 PM"
postlinkclicks 1
postotherclicks 2
reach 32
sharesimpress 1
sharesusers 1
type Link

==========


political hazards of preaching to the choir

With  a month until the election, there's time for at
least three or four more scandals and crises that might
affect Republican or Democratic turnout.  Since the
middle decides elections, Democratic reaction to these
scandals and crises should be targeted at turning out
the persuadable independent voters in the middle rather
than the ideological base - don't make the same mistake as
Trump, putting all his energy into revving up his shrinking
base and no energy into expanding it.

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/opinions/wp/2018/10/10/republicans-are-shrinking-their-electoral-map/

The excited Republican base might cool down from its
Kavanaugh high if it had time to think about who Trump
really is

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/02/us/politics/donald-trump-wealth-fred-trump.html

and what the Republicans really want to do about medical
care, taxes, and entitlements.  So expect the Republicans
to continue to talk about mob rule and whatabout Hillary
to keep their base revved up and distracted.

=====

comments 2
impact 418
impactrate 0
likeimpress 5
negative 0
posted 2018-10-10
ratio 2
react 29
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sharesrate 0
sumclicks 19
title political hazards of preaching to the choir
topic election
wordrate 0
words 144
ID 731070910570764
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/731070910570764
audclicks 19
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oimpress 115
oreach 82
posted "10/10/2018 11:15:55 AM"
postlinkclicks 4
postotherclicks 10
reach 82
sharesimpress 3
sharesusers 3
type Link

==========


How to easily find a 53,000 vote advantage

 https://www.thestate.com/news/nation-world/national/article219719740.html

Voter suppression is one of the pillars of Republican rule.

=====

comments 2
impact 45
impactrate 0
likeimpress 9
negative 0
posted 2018-10-10
ratio 2
react 25
reactrate 0
shares 2
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 12
title How to easily find a 53,000 vote advantage
topic election
wordrate 0
words 18
ID 731015563909632
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/731015563909632
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oimpress 115
oreach 74
posted "10/10/2018 08:55:37 AM"
postlinkclicks 6
postotherclicks 3
reach 74
sharesimpress 2
sharesusers 2
type Link

==========


Irony is dead

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2018/10/10/lawless-raging-president-fears-the-angry-mob-good-he-should/

=====

comments 18
impact 46
impactrate 0
likeimpress 31
negative 0
posted 2018-10-10
ratio 1
react 154
reactrate 0
shares 6
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 99
title Irony is dead
topic election
wordrate 0
words 3
ID 731005023910686
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/731005023910686
audclicks 99
audreach 35
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likeimpress 31
likeuimpress 159
likeusers 31
likeuusers 120
matchedlinkclicks 11
matchedotherclicks 88
oimpress 292
oreach 215
posted "10/10/2018 08:26:32 AM"
postlinkclicks 11
postotherclicks 30
reach 215
sharesimpress 6
sharesusers 6
type Link

==========


Election insecurity - it's all about the money and the
secrecy

And unwittingly abetted by some unusual suspects - ACLU,
League of Women Voters, National Federation of the Blind.

Most technologists understand that open-source systems
are inherently more secure than closed-source systems.
But election officials are rarely technologists.      They
make do with what the vendors offer, because of lack of
funding to do better, and because of Federal directives.
Members of Congress are likewise rarely technologists.
There are lots of parties that don't like paper trails.
The Russians are just the tip of the iceberg.

Understanding the extent of the vulnerabilities, nobody can
say that foreign or domestic interference hasn't affected
the outcome of elections.     There are only a few  vendors
of American voting machines, and one is a Canadian company!

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/26/magazine/election-security-crisis-midterms.html

=====

impact 236
impactrate 0
likeimpress 1
negative 0
posted 2018-09-27
priority 1
ratio 2
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sharesrate 0
sumclicks 15
title Election insecurity - it's all about the money and the
topic election
wordrate 0
words 131
ID 724340451243810
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/724340451243810
audclicks 15
audreach 3
engaged 3
impress 67
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likeimpress 1
likeuimpress 36
likeusers 1
likeuusers 30
matchedotherclicks 15
oimpress 67
oreach 40
posted "09/27/2018 01:06:03 PM"
postotherclicks 3
reach 40
sharesimpress 2
sharesusers 2
type Link

==========


Feeling anxious?   Do something about it - register
and vote!

 https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/young-people-feel-anxious-about-election-poll-finds

=====

comments 6
impact 56
impactrate 0
likeimpress 10
negative 0
posted 2018-09-27
ratio 2
react 56
reactrate 0
shares 6
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 34
title Feeling anxious? Do something about it - register
topic election
wordrate 0
words 10
ID 724220814589107
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/724220814589107
audclicks 34
audreach 10
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likeimpress 10
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oimpress 175
oreach 126
posted "09/27/2018 07:12:33 AM"
postlinkclicks 1
postotherclicks 9
reach 126
sharesimpress 6
sharesusers 6
type Link

==========


Who pays for your candidates?

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/wasnt-trumps-gop-supposed-to-represent-the-little-guy-oops/2018/09/26/8a432f70-c1cd-11e8-a1f0-a4051b6ad114_story.html

=====

comments 2
impact 23
impactrate 0
likeimpress 4
negative 0
posted 2018-09-26
ratio 1
react 46
reactrate 0
shares 5
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 35
title Who pays for your candidates?
topic election
wordrate 0
words 5
ID 724001154611073
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/724001154611073
audclicks 35
audreach 9
commentsimpress 2
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impress 132
likeclickusers 13
likeimpress 4
likeuimpress 68
likeusers 4
likeuusers 44
matchedlinkclicks 6
matchedotherclicks 29
oimpress 132
oreach 84
posted "09/26/2018 07:21:19 PM"
postlinkclicks 5
postotherclicks 6
reach 84
sharesimpress 5
sharesusers 5
type Link

==========


putting rape culture on the ballot across the country

 https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/09/24/stanford-law-professor-launches-new-pac-to-target-metoo-abusers/

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/defending-kavanaugh-trump-laments-metoo-as-very-dangerous-for-powerful-men/2018/09/26/e9116536-c1a4-11e8-97a5-ab1e46bb3bc7_story.html

 http://enoughisenoughvoter.org/

 https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/618745698469953

A man watches women watching Senate testimony and wonders
what will happen in November and beyond -

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2018/09/27/americans-are-not-going-to-forget-this-day-especially-women/

But no matter how this nomination goes, it is going to
get more difficult to find nominees willing to endure
anything like it  in public.       Some better way
of presoaking to get all the dirt out in private in
advance seems necessary, and some better way of dealing
with late-breaking news that upholds the dignity of the
individuals and the institutions.        Maybe more women
will be inspired to come forward earlier in the process.
Maybe future presidents will be inspired to nominate more
qualified women instead of more good old boys from the
Federalist Society.    Or maybe the public, men and women
alike,  will become cynical and apathetic - "they're
all like that, and we'll never know the truth, so what's
the use of caring or voting?"    That would be the
worst possible outcome, except for the populist-fascist
Trumpians, for whom it's the best possible.

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/27/opinion/blasey-ford-kavanaugh-senate-hearings-.html

=====

comments 1
impact 547
impactrate 0
likeimpress 12
negative 0
posted 2018-09-26
priority 1
ratio 3
react 32
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shares 4
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 15
title putting rape culture on the ballot across the country
topic election
wordrate 0
words 171
ID 723985014612687
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/723985014612687
audclicks 15
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likeusers 10
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oimpress 148
oreach 98
posted "09/26/2018 06:30:20 PM"
postlinkclicks 3
postotherclicks 6
reach 98
sharesimpress 4
sharesusers 4
type Link

==========


Delusion or salesmanship?

Just because the polls were slightly wrong in 2016 doesn't
mean they will be wrong or wrong in the same way in 2018.

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/20/us/politics/trump-republicans-midterms.html

The hard-core Trump base that comes to his campaign rallies
is an electoral minority.    He has put a lot of effort
into cultivating it, and very little effort into broadening
it -

 https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/716864595324729

=====

comments 5
impact 151
impactrate 0
likeimpress 4
negative 0
posted 2018-09-20
ratio 3
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sumclicks 15
title Delusion or salesmanship?
topic election
wordrate 0
words 58
ID 720922008252321
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/720922008252321
audclicks 15
audreach 11
commentsimpress 5
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impress 120
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likeimpress 4
likeuimpress 80
likeusers 4
likeuusers 63
matchedlinkclicks 3
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oimpress 120
oreach 82
posted "09/20/2018 09:39:53 PM"
postlinkclicks 3
postotherclicks 8
reach 82
sharesimpress 2
sharesusers 2
type Link

==========


It's not a good year to get over-confident

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/paloma/the-trailer/2018/09/20/the-trailer-how-texas-republicans-beat-the-blue-wave/5ba4029a1b326b7c8a8d1596/

It's all about turnout, everywhere.

=====

comments 1
impact 20
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2018-09-20
ratio 2
react 15
reactrate 0
shares 2
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 12
title It's not a good year to get over-confident
topic election
wordrate 0
words 13
ID 720914018253120
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/720914018253120
audclicks 12
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likeuusers 26
matchedlinkclicks 2
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oimpress 51
oreach 34
posted "09/20/2018 09:05:45 PM"
postlinkclicks 1
postotherclicks 3
reach 34
sharesimpress 2
sharesusers 2
type Link

==========


Politics is local as well as national -

what works in one time and place for one candidate
doesn't work in a different time and place for a different
candidate.

George Will explains what seems to be working in Texas -

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/in-this-texas-district-the-democrats-seem-serious-about-winning/2018/09/14/cfde3214-b778-11e8-94eb-3bd52dfe917b_story.html

Winning parties succeed by maintaining a big enough tent
to cover a winning variety of points of view.

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/15/opinion/sunday/democrats-candidates-victory.html

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/16/opinion/columnists/democrats-midterms-progressive-left-trump.html

=====

comments 2
hide 1
impact 201
impactrate 0
likeimpress 4
negative 1
posted 2018-09-16
ratio 4
react 34
reactrate 0
shares 4
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 23
title Politics is local as well as national -
topic election
wordrate 0
words 59
ID 718363251841530
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/718363251841530
audclicks 23
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oimpress 205
oreach 157
posted "09/16/2018 11:46:05 AM"
postlinkclicks 1
postotherclicks 11
reach 157
sharesimpress 4
sharesusers 4
type Link

==========


Moving from concerned to active

2018 Active:

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/15/opinion/sunday/seth-klarman-donations-trump-democrats.html

2017 Concerned:

 https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/06/business/dealbook/sorkin-seth-klarman-trump-investors.html

=====

impact 20
impactrate 0
likeimpress 4
negative 0
posted 2018-09-16
ratio 3
react 22
reactrate 0
shares 1
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 17
title Moving from concerned to active
topic election
wordrate 0
words 9
ID 718361248508397
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/718361248508397
audclicks 17
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likeuimpress 92
likeusers 4
likeuusers 66
matchedlinkclicks 2
matchedotherclicks 15
oimpress 107
oreach 70
posted "09/16/2018 11:39:39 AM"
postlinkclicks 2
postotherclicks 6
reach 70
sharesimpress 1
sharesusers 1
type Link

==========


Want to get hands on talking to a red district from a
blue district?

The Democrats are looking for volunteers to work their
phone banks in SF.

 https://www.redtobluesf.org/

And if you have more money than time, they'll accept
donations too.

=====

impact 4
impactrate 0
negative 0
posted 2018-09-14
ratio 33
react 1
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 1
title Want to get hands on talking to a red district from a
topic election
wordrate 0
words 39
ID 717488825262306
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/717488825262306
audclicks 1
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engaged 1
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likeclickusers 1
likeuimpress 37
likeuusers 29
matchedlinkclicks 1
oimpress 54
oreach 33
posted "09/14/2018 05:32:00 PM"
postlinkclicks 1
reach 33
type Link

==========


TRUMP IS THE GREATEST PRESIDENT OF ALL TIME!!!

By his own definition - he has dominated the news cycles
and TV ratings worldwide unlike any of his predecessors.
Isn't that what a "reality TV" star is supposed
to do?

 https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/election-all-about-trump-not-obama

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/opinions/wp/2018/09/13/republicans-good-luck-getting-trump-out-of-the-news/

But Trump will be Trump, and he won't shut up even to save
the careers of the Republicans in Congress.     After all,
he knows perfectly well that they don't really love him
any more than he really loves them - occasional shows of
affection are just reality TV.    He shows what he really
thinks when he starts thinking up pejorative nicknames
for other Republicans.

He's sure his base will protect him in the elections - even
though he's not actually running this year.    Just look
how they roar at his campaign rallies!    But he has no
interest in and has put no effort into expanding his base
beyond the hard core that support him because nobody else
supports them and their base instincts.

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#Second%20Trump%20Constituency

Republicans running this fall - fall into two camps.
Those running in districts where Trump is a liability -
with educated suburban women in particular - probably
secretly wish that the Democrats had succeeded in
impeaching and removing him so that they could be running
with President Pence instead - while bitterly condemning,
with crocodile tears, the Democrats for impeaching Trump.
The other camp - whose ONLY claim to electability is
"Trumpier than Trump" - know that their careers
are finished whenever Trump leaves the scene.    Sure,
there'll be a Trumpist third party for a while - like
the American Independent Party - that will give them a
platform for future revenge runs against Republicans -
much to the joy of Democrats everywhere.    They might
even get some Democratic donations to encourage them.

If all that happens, then Trump will be remembered not
only for revitalizing the Democratic Party and moving it
to the left, but for revitalizing the Republican Party
and moving it to the left, or at least toward the center,
by finally excising the racist cancer of Nixon's Southern
Strategy from mainstream American political life.

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/17/opinion/trump-maga.html

Those old enough to remember how Republican Congressional
support for Nixon evaporated literally overnight - when
they finally all agreed to agree publicly that the emperor
had no clothes - wonder if the same instant evaporation
will occur again between November and January.

Nixon evidently never realized that he had done anything
wrong, or perhaps he thought that his only sin was
getting caught doing what he thought everybody else did.
He supposed that somehow his power base in Congress had
mysteriously evaporated.

=====

comments 8
impact 2901
impactrate 0
likeimpress 11
negative 0
posted 2018-09-13
ratio 1
react 67
reactrate 0
shares 1
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 47
title TRUMP IS THE GREATEST PRESIDENT OF ALL TIME!!!
topic election
wordrate 0
words 433
ID 716864595324729
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/716864595324729
audclicks 47
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commentsimpress 8
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likeuimpress 122
likeusers 11
likeuusers 89
matchedotherclicks 47
oimpress 150
oreach 100
posted "09/13/2018 11:18:05 AM"
postotherclicks 22
reach 100
sharesimpress 1
sharesusers 1
type Link

==========


Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2018/09/11/daily-202-playing-catch-up-progressive-groups-to-spend-10-million-on-digital-ads-for-state-legislative-races/5b970b121b326b47ec959539/

A worthy cause - if you live in those states, don't forget
to vote Democratic straight down the ticket.      If you
don't live in those states, it is worth your while to
support the effort in time or money -

 https://democraticredistricting.com/

Long term, Federal redistricting should be done at
a Federal level.       And ranked-choice voting and
multimember Congressional districts would also help reduce
the benefit of gerrymandering.

 https://www.fairvote.org/

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/democracy.html#redistricting

=====

comments 1
impact 50
impactrate 0
likeimpress 1
negative 0
posted 2018-09-11
ratio 4
react 7
reactrate 0
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 5
title Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan
topic election
wordrate 0
words 71
ID 715723478772174
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/715723478772174
audclicks 5
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commentsimpress 1
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likeclickusers 5
likeimpress 1
likeuimpress 35
likeusers 1
likeuusers 27
matchedotherclicks 5
oimpress 58
oreach 29
posted "09/11/2018 12:51:05 PM"
postotherclicks 5
reach 29
type Link

==========


The Kochs don't like Trump

but they want to defend his billionaire tax cuts,
billionaire deregulation, and billionaire-supporting
reactionary Federal judiciary, so -

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/koch-network-announces-new-super-pac-ahead-of-midterms/2018/09/10/61f56042-b4fd-11e8-a7b5-adaaa5b2a57f_story.html

Of course, the Kochs don't want to disclose their donor
list, even confidentially -

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/koch-backed-charity-must-reveal-donor-list-to-california-state-officials-appeals-court-rules/2018/09/11/0acf5e06-b5fe-11e8-94eb-3bd52dfe917b_story.html

Of course, if Trump were really the billionaire he pretends
to be, he could pay for his own re-election and those of
all his pals in the Senate and House out of his own pocket,
through a PAC.      But he'd rather ask his impoverished
supporters to pay for their further impoverishment.

What can people of lesser means make a difference?
Five dollar donations make a big difference when there
are enough of them.

 https://dccc.org/
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee

 http://www.dscc.org/
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee

 https://democraticredistricting.com/
National Democratic Redistricting Committee - working
right now on state governors and legislatures that control
redistricting

 https://www.fightbackca.com/
Fight Back California - California 7 Project - working
to retire seven vulnerable Trumpists - lately expanded to
include Devin Nunes among others

And support reforms to get the dark money out of politics,
so we know who is paying for whom -

 http://www.americanpromise.net/
 https://democracy21.org/issues/money-in-politics
Voters who think that elections should be decided by
people rather than dollars, should support the necessary
structural changes to campaign finance laws to make sure
that AT LEAST we know who's paying, and better yet to
restrict political contributions to registered voters.

More at
 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/democracy.html

=====

comments 2
impact 910
impactrate 0
likeimpress 8
negative 0
posted 2018-09-10
ratio 3
react 41
reactrate 0
shares 5
sharesrate 0
sumclicks 26
title The Kochs don't like Trump
topic election
wordrate 0
words 222
ID 715066972171158
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/715066972171158
audclicks 26
audreach 16
commentsimpress 2
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impress 228
likeclickusers 14
likeimpress 8
likeuimpress 86
likeusers 7
likeuusers 73
matchedlinkclicks 3
matchedotherclicks 23
oimpress 228
oreach 162
posted "09/10/2018 08:47:03 AM"
postlinkclicks 3
postotherclicks 13
reach 162
sharesimpress 5
sharesusers 5
type Link

==========


If you can't dig up something - then make up something

That's the low road in politics.

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/so-this-is-how-paul-ryan-says-goodbye/2018/09/07/6ad7dccc-b2b3-11e8-9a6a-565d92a3585d_story.html

And it works, because you can say anything you want during
a political campaign with impunity.

=====

comments 1
impact 119
impactrate 0
likeimpress 4
negative 0
posted 2018-09-07
ratio 2
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posted "09/07/2018 06:57:26 PM"
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==========


register - inform - think - donate - vote - reform

So what are YOU going to do about American politics?

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/former-president-obama-to-warn-of-voter-apathy-ahead-of-the-november-elections/2018/09/07/fad28508-b28f-11e8-9a6a-565d92a3585d_story.html

Staying home is a vote for Trump

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/this-is-the-most-important-thing-you-will-do-all-year/2018/09/14/82646534-b77e-11e8-a7b5-adaaa5b2a57f_story.html

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/28/opinion/trump-midterms-shoot-fifth-avenue.html

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2018/08/28/trump-rage-googles-himself-and-reveals-a-frightening-truth-about-the-midterms/

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/08/28/giulianis-telling-defense-himself-all-that-matters-is-that-mueller-is-undermined/

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/27/opinion/trump-democrats-midterms-house-oversight.html

Why don't YOU

REGISTER to vote INFORM yourself about the issues and
candidates THINK about short-term tactics and long-term
strategy DONATE money or time or both to worthy issues
and candidates VOTE by November 6! to fix the short-term
problems SUPPORT REFORMS to fix the long-term problems

===== 2018 tactics to fix the short-term problems

For 2018, almost everybody who is concerned about the
direction the Trumpists want to go should just vote a
straight Democratic ticket.  Anti-Trump Republicans have
been pretty much eliminated in the primaries.  Very few
independents and third-party candidates have the slightest
chance of winning, so in almost all cases a vote for them
is a vote for Trumpism, as is a vote for staying home
or going fishing.  This is no time to indulge in wishful
ideological thinking.

Likewise for 2018, it's very appropriate to support
Democratic politicians even if you've never donated
money or time to political causes before.    Money is the
mother's milk of politics; nobody gets very far without it.
You can donate to specific campaigns or, if you're not
sure, consider -

 https://dccc.org/
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee

 http://www.dscc.org/
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee

 https://democraticredistricting.com/
National Democratic Redistricting Committee - working
right now on state governors and legislatures that control
redistricting

 https://www.fightbackca.com/
Fight Back California - California 7 Project - working
to retire seven vulnerable Trumpists - lately expanded to
include Devin Nunes among others

They would all prefer 100 $5 donations to one $500
donation, and they'll put them to work where they will
make the greatest difference.

Of course, if you are a racist sexist greedy billionaire,
you might think you'll get a better return on your
investment at https://www.donaldjtrump.com/ and you might
be right in the short term; fortunately you're rich enough
to be able to afford to lose all your investment when it
suddenly goes south sooner or later.

In the present climate, the average Democratic candidate
is likely to be a better choice than the average Trumpist
candidate.   But the Democratic candidate has not always
been the best choice in all times and places; sometimes
it's been hard to tell the difference between Republican
and Democratic candidates.    Not this year.

You did register to vote for the primaries, didn't you?
If not, here's a primer -

 https://www.usa.gov/register-to-vote

===== Reform Strategy to fix the long-term problems

Longer-term there are some important ideas that deserve
your support - the right structural changes are far
more powerful than electing any one candidate in any one
election -

 http://www.fairvote.org/
Ideologically-oriented voters who would like to vote for an
independent or third-party candidate, but not throw their
vote away or have it become in effect a vote for Trumpists,
should support the necessary structural changes to voting
laws: ranked-choice voting and multimember districts.

 http://www.americanpromise.net/
 https://democracy21.org/issues/money-in-politics
Voters who think that elections should be decided by
people rather than dollars, should support the necessary
structural changes to campaign finance laws to make sure
that AT LEAST we know who's paying, and better yet to
restrict political contributions to registered voters.

 https://www.nolabels.org/
Voters who would like Congress to make choices other than
the extreme left or extreme right, should support the
necessary structural changes to Congressional rules that
inhibit centrist and bipartisan solutions.

 https://www.uniteamerica.org/
Voters who would like to choose candidates other than
the extreme left or extreme right that party primaries
tend to produce, should support the necessary structural
changes to voting laws that inhibit centrist, independent
and third-party candidates.

More at
 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/democracy.html

=====

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posted "09/07/2018 02:43:51 PM"
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type Link

==========


op-ed: a deep state conspiracy

Everybody else has a theory about who wrote the anonymous
NY Times op-ed, so here's another one: the op-ed was
written by a group of traditional Republican mid-level
people - think Guccifer 2.0 or N. Bourbaki -  carefully
crafted ("lodestar") to make it look like it
might have been written by somebody else - and transmitted
by a senior-level person who could later truthfully say
he/she didn't write it.    The purpose is three-fold:

1) Get the Democrats fired up to talk about impeachment
or 25th Amendment constantly, and thus

2) Get the Republican base fired up to protect Trump by
turning out to vote  on November 6 instead of staying home
despondent over losing control of Congress, and thereby
improve Republican chances in November

3) Distract everybody from Kavanaugh's nomination
hearings - that accounts for the particular timing -
and thus improve chances of confirmation that looks good
for Trump and will protect him if he ends up before the
Supreme Court.

The purpose, as made plain in the op-ed, is to protect
traditional Republican gains despite Trump.      As for
specific allegations, they will be forgotten soon enough
whenever the next worse scandal erupts.     As usual,
Trump knows nothing about the plan, but responded exactly
as scripted.

This theory is based on no special inside information
whatever, but if the President can make up any story he
pleases, it's because he wants everybody else to do the
same, so nobody believes anything.    But you can always
ask yourself, "How would Roger Stone create or exploit
a situation like this?"

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/07/opinion/columnists/kavanaugh-trump-kamala-harris-anonymous.html

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-never-ending-cycle-some-aides-work-to-slow-walk-or-ignore-trumps-directives/2018/09/06/0ac81f88-b1ee-11e8-a20b-5f4f84429666_story.html

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/07/us/politics/trump-republicans.html

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-justice-department-should-investigate-anonymous-op-ed-author/2018/09/07/b1eecd80-b2ba-11e8-a20b-5f4f84429666_story.html

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/theres-a-new-sheriff-in-town-trump-uses-official-events-to-wage-campaign-against-press/2018/09/06/8cf4180c-b204-11e8-9a6a-565d92a3585d_story.html

=====

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title op-ed: a deep state conspiracy
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posted "09/07/2018 11:16:37 AM"
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==========


What's going to happen in Florida?

Will the left-wing Democrat frighten the independents
into voting Republican, or will the right-wing Trumpist
frighten the independents into voting Democratic?

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/08/29/florida-governors-race-is-epitome-politics-trump-era/

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2018/08/29/a-new-way-to-slay-trumpism-shocking-florida-outcome-sets-up-a-big-test/

If Florida had ranked-choice-voting, centrist independent
candidates could run without worrying about whether they
are paving the way for the worst outcome.

 http://www.fairvote.org/

=====

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posted "08/29/2018 10:54:44 AM"
postotherclicks 2
reach 27
type Link

==========


register - inform - think - donate - vote - reform

So what are YOU going to do about American politics?

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/28/opinion/trump-midterms-shoot-fifth-avenue.html

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2018/08/28/trump-rage-googles-himself-and-reveals-a-frightening-truth-about-the-midterms/

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/08/28/giulianis-telling-defense-himself-all-that-matters-is-that-mueller-is-undermined/

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/27/opinion/trump-democrats-midterms-house-oversight.html

Why don't YOU

REGISTER to vote INFORM yourself about the issues and
candidates THINK about short-term tactics and long-term
strategy DONATE money or time or both to worthy issues
and candidates VOTE by November 6! to fix the short-term
problems SUPPORT REFORMS to fix the long-term problems

===== 2018 tactics to fix the short-term problems

For 2018, almost everybody who is concerned about the
direction the Trumpists want to go should just vote a
straight Democratic ticket.  Anti-Trump Republicans have
been pretty much eliminated in the primaries.  Very few
independents and third-party candidates have the slightest
chance of winning, so in almost all cases a vote for them
is a vote for Trumpism, as is a vote for staying home
or going fishing.  This is no time to indulge in wishful
ideological thinking.

Likewise for 2018, it's very appropriate to support
Democratic politicians even if you've never donated
money or time to political causes before.    Money is the
mother's milk of politics; nobody gets very far without it.
You can donate to specific campaigns or, if you're not
sure, consider -

 https://dccc.org/
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee

 http://www.dscc.org/
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee

 https://democraticredistricting.com/
National Democratic Redistricting Committee - working
right now on state governors and legislatures that control
redistricting

 https://www.fightbackca.com/
Fight Back California - California 7 Project - working
to retire seven vulnerable Trumpists - lately expanded to
include Devin Nunes among others

They would all prefer 100 $5 donations to one $500
donation, and they'll put them to work where they will
make the greatest difference.

Of course, if you are a racist sexist greedy billionaire,
you might think you'll get a better return on your
investment at https://www.donaldjtrump.com/ and you might
be right in the short term; fortunately you're rich enough
to be able to afford to lose all your investment when it
suddenly goes south sooner or later.

In the present climate, the average Democratic candidate
is likely to be a better choice than the average Trumpist
candidate.   But the Democratic candidate has not always
been the best choice in all times and places; sometimes
it's been hard to tell the difference between Republican
and Democratic candidates.    Not this year.

You did register to vote for the primaries, didn't you?
If not, here's a primer -

 https://www.usa.gov/register-to-vote

===== Reform Strategy to fix the long-term problems

Longer-term there are some important ideas that deserve
your support - the right structural changes are far
more powerful than electing any one candidate in any one
election -

 http://www.fairvote.org/
Ideologically-oriented voters who would like to vote for an
independent or third-party candidate, but not throw their
vote away or have it become in effect a vote for Trumpists,
should support the necessary structural changes to voting
laws: ranked-choice voting and multimember districts.

 http://www.americanpromise.net/
 https://democracy21.org/issues/money-in-politics
Voters who think that elections should be decided by
people rather than dollars, should support the necessary
structural changes to campaign finance laws to make sure
that AT LEAST we know who's paying, and better yet to
restrict political contributions to registered voters.

 https://www.nolabels.org/
Voters who would like Congress to make choices other than
the extreme left or extreme right, should support the
necessary structural changes to Congressional rules that
inhibit centrist and bipartisan solutions.

 https://www.uniteamerica.org/
Voters who would like to choose candidates other than
the extreme left or extreme right that party primaries
tend to produce, should support the necessary structural
changes to voting laws that inhibit centrist, independent
and third-party candidates.

More at
 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/democracy.html

=====

comments 2
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posted "08/28/2018 10:27:24 AM"
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type Link

==========


Splitting the Trump Vote

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/republicans-struggle-to-run-with-trump-but-against-his-trade-war/2018/08/26/07208296-998c-11e8-b60b-1c897f17e185_story.html

Looks like tariffs are finally going to divide the two
main parts of the Trump constituency -

== #1) The people that voted for change in their lives
and sure got change, but in the wrong direction -

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#First%20Trump%20Constituency

But Trump's not into nuance - either you are 100% for him
or you are the deep-state coastal-elitist fake-news enemy.
So he loves the faithful that turn out for his campaign
rallies -

== #2) The people that voted for Trump and love him 100%,
no matter what, even if they're worse off -

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#Second%20Trump%20Constituency

One wonders how many will be left in either camp after the
current economic recovery ends.    It might last through
the election, but hardly any economists think it will last
until 2020.

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/08/27/can-strong-us-economy-survive-until/

The Trumpists have been doing their best to insure that
it will be hard landing -

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/24/sunday-review/manafort-cohen-mueller-white-collar-crime.html

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/manafort-cohen-cases-reveal-weaknesses-in-enforcement-of-tax-and-election-laws/2018/08/25/3dace2f8-a79e-11e8-a656-943eefab5daf_story.html

In any case, a surprisingly large part of the electorate
likes trade -

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2018/08/27/populist-revolt-against-trade-liberalization-is-over-trump-killed-it/

Indeed, if Trump were replaced by Pence, the market
response would probably be positive -

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2018/08/27/no-trump-doesnt-determine-fate-stock-market-what-does-why-does-it-matter/

=====

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posted "08/27/2018 06:24:58 AM"
postotherclicks 4
reach 50
type Link

==========


register - inform - think - donate - vote

So what are YOU going to do about American politics?

REGISTER to vote INFORM yourself about the issues and
candidates THINK about short-term tactics and long-term
strategy DONATE money or time or both to worthy issues
and candidates VOTE by November 6! to fix the short-term
problems SUPPORT REFORMS to fix the long-term problems

===== 2018 tactics to fix the short-term problems

For 2018, almost everybody who is concerned about the
direction the Trumpists want to go should just vote a
straight Democratic ticket.  Anti-Trump Republicans have
been pretty much eliminated in the primaries.  Very few
independents and third-party candidates have the slightest
chance of winning, so in almost all cases a vote for them
is a vote for Trumpism, as is a vote for staying home
or going fishing.  This is no time to indulge in wishful
ideological thinking.

Likewise for 2018, it's very appropriate to support
Democratic politicians even if you've never donated
money or time to political causes before.    Money is the
mother's milk of politics; nobody gets very far without it.
You can donate to specific campaigns or, if you're not
sure, consider -

 https://dccc.org/
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee

 http://www.dscc.org/
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee

 https://democraticredistricting.com/
National Democratic Redistricting Committee - working
right now on state governors and legislatures that control
redistricting

 https://www.fightbackca.com/
Fight Back California - California 7 Project - working
to retire seven vulnerable Trumpists - lately expanded to
include Devin Nunes among others

They would all prefer 100 $5 donations to one $500
donation, and they'll put them to work where they will
make the greatest difference.

Of course, if you are a racist sexist greedy billionaire,
you might think you'll get a better return on your
investment at https://www.donaldjtrump.com/ and you might
be right in the short term; fortunately you're rich enough
to be able to afford to lose all your investment when it
suddenly goes south sooner or later.

In the present climate, the average Democratic candidate
is likely to be a better choice than the average Trumpist
candidate.   But the Democratic candidate has not always
been the best choice in all times and places; sometimes
it's been hard to tell the difference between Republican
and Democratic candidates.    Not this year.

You did register to vote for the primaries, didn't you?
If not, here's a primer -

 https://www.usa.gov/register-to-vote

===== Future Strategy to fix the long-term problems

Longer-term there are some important ideas that deserve
your support - the right structural changes are far
more powerful than electing any one candidate in any one
election -

 http://www.fairvote.org/
Ideologically-oriented voters who would like to vote for an
independent or third-party candidate, but not throw their
vote away or have it become in effect a vote for Trumpists,
should support the necessary structural changes to voting
laws: ranked-choice voting and multimember districts.

 http://www.americanpromise.net/
 https://democracy21.org/issues/money-in-politics
Voters who think that elections should be decided by
people rather than dollars, should support the necessary
structural changes to campaign finance laws to make sure
that AT LEAST we know who's paying, and better yet to
restrict political contributions to registered voters.

 https://www.nolabels.org/
Voters who would like Congress to make choices other than
the extreme left or extreme right, should support the
necessary structural changes to Congressional rules that
inhibit centrist and bipartisan solutions.

 https://www.uniteamerica.org/
Voters who would like to choose candidates other than
the extreme left or extreme right that party primaries
tend to produce, should support the necessary structural
changes to voting laws that inhibit centrist, independent
and third-party candidates.

More at
 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/democracy.html

=====

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posted "08/27/2018 05:52:47 AM"
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type Link

==========


Extra barriers for female candidates

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/24/us/politics/women-harassment-elections.html

=====

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posted "08/24/2018 02:05:14 PM"
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==========


Another target for the California 7 Project

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/congressman-duncan-hunter-wife-charged-with-spending-campaign-money-on-personal-expenses/2018/08/21/4dba040a-a591-11e8-a656-943eefab5daf_story.html

It started at 7 and just keeps growing

 https://www.fightbackca.com/

What is the mysterious force that attracts early Trump
supporters to corruption?

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/26/us/duncan-hunter-corruption-scandal.html

But the Trumpists aren't worried -

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-critics-pounce-on-his-indictment-duncan-hunter-remains-the-likely-victor-in-november-in-a-strongly-republican-house-district/2018/08/22/14520bee-a623-11e8-97ce-cc9042272f07_story.html

Their base never minded a little corruption.   Or a lot.
Corruption at the top empowers corruption all the way down
to the base.

Hunter punches right back -

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2018/08/23/daily-202-duncan-hunter-embraces-the-smash-mouth-tactics-trump-learned-from-roy-cohn/

=====

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posted "08/22/2018 07:26:55 AM"
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type Link

==========


2018 tactics and future strategy

* 2018 tactics

With the mid-term election less than three months away,
it's time to consider how one ought to vote.  You did
register to vote for the primaries, didn't you?  If not,
here's a primer -

 https://www.usa.gov/register-to-vote

For 2018, almost everybody who is concerned about the
direction the Trumpists want to go should just vote a
straight Democratic ticket.  Anti-Trump Republicans have
been pretty much eliminated in the primaries.  Very few
independents and third-party candidates have the slightest
chance of winning, so in almost all cases a vote for them
is a vote for Trumpism, as is a vote for staying home
or going fishing.  This is no time to indulge in wishful
ideological thinking.

Likewise for 2018, it's very appropriate to support
Democratic politicians even if you've never donated money
to political causes before.    You can donate to specific
campaigns or, if you're not sure, consider -

 https://dccc.org/
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee

 http://www.dscc.org/
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee

 https://democraticredistricting.com/
National Democratic Redistricting Committee - working
particularly on state governors and legislatures that
control redistricting

 https://www.fightbackca.com/
Fight Back California - California 7 Project - working
to retire seven vulnerable Trumpists - lately expanded to
include Devin Nunes

They would all prefer 100 $5 donations to one $500
donation, and they'll put them to work where they will
make the greatest difference.

Of course, if you are a racist sexist greedy billionaire,
you might think you'll get a better return on your
investment at https://www.donaldjtrump.com/ and you might
be right in the short term; fortunately you're rich enough
to be able to afford to lose all your investment when it
suddenly goes south sooner or later.

In the present climate, the average Democratic candidate
is likely to be a better choice than the average Trumpist
candidate.   But the Democratic candidate has not always
been the best choice in all times and places; sometimes
it's been hard to tell the difference between Republican
and Democratic candidates.    Not this year.

* Future Strategy

Longer-term there are some important ideas that deserve
your support -

 http://www.fairvote.org/
Ideologically-oriented voters who would like to vote for an
independent or third-party candidate, but not throw their
vote away or have it become in effect a vote for Trumpists,
should support the necessary structural changes to voting
laws: ranked-choice voting and multimember districts.

 http://www.americanpromise.net/
 https://democracy21.org/issues/money-in-politics
Voters who think that elections should be decided by
people rather than dollars, should support the necessary
structural changes to campaign finance laws to make sure
that AT LEAST we know who's paying, and better yet to
restrict political contributions to registered voters.

 https://www.nolabels.org/ https://www.uniteamerica.org/
Voters who would like to make choices other than extreme
left or extreme right, should support the necessary
structural changes to voting laws that inhibit centrist,
independent and third-party candidates.

More at
 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/democracy.html

=====

impact 181
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posted 2018-08-16
ratio 8
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posted "08/16/2018 09:59:47 PM"
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type Link

==========


After the midterm elections in November, the whole party
is going to ask whether it makes sense, politically,
to stick with Trump. Trump knows that moment is coming.

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-blames-gov-kasich-for-close-special-election-race-in-ohio/2018/08/13/ffb9a456-9ee0-11e8-83d2-70203b8d7b44_story.html

=====

impact 50
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title After the midterm elections in November, the whole party
topic election
wordrate 0
words 28
ID 693503874327468
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oreach 58
posted "08/13/2018 07:46:22 PM"
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sharesimpress 3
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type Link

==========


a woman who happens to have been far better at her job
than any man in recent memory

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/13/opinion/nancy-pelosi-midterms-democrats-republicans.html

=====

comments 3
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posted 2018-08-13
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title a woman who happens to have been far better at her job
topic election
wordrate 0
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ID 693451447666044
URL https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/693451447666044
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posted "08/13/2018 06:23:25 PM"
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type Link

==========


Republican women - don't run this year

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/13/us/politics/republican-women-candidates-midterms.html

unless you're really into guilt by association - pitch
defileth the hand that toucheth it.    Not to worry -
Trump won't lend a hand unless he thinks you're really hot.

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/12/us/politics/trump-tweets-lisa-page-nellie-ohr.html

Then you might prefer he keep his hands to himself.

The Republican Party is now the Trump Party.   Your worth
is measured by (unrequited) fidelity to Trump.   Like it
or leave it.

=====

comments 4
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ID 693090527702136
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posted "08/13/2018 10:06:35 AM"
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type Link

==========


President Swalwell?

 https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/08/09/eric-swalwell-iowa-presidential-run/

Certainly a better bet than President Avenatti

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/10/us/politics/michael-avenatti-michelle-obama-trump.html

=====

comments 3
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sumclicks 27
title President Swalwell?
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wordrate 0
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ID 692092971135225
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posted "08/12/2018 12:27:20 PM"
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type Link

==========


Wrong answer from the wrong candidate

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/10/us/politics/michael-avenatti-michelle-obama-trump.html

Universal adoption of Trumpist tactics serves nobody
but Putin.      For real lasting change... be the change
that you want the world to be.

=====

comments 2
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ID 690775987933590
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posted "08/11/2018 06:49:20 AM"
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==========


Young veterans try to re-invigorate Congress -

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/veterans-in-congress-know-what-it-means-to-put-country-first/2018/07/31/b9dedb84-9505-11e8-a679-b09212fb69c2_story.html
 https://www.withhonor.org/

 https://www.serveamericapac.com/

Serve America PAC seems to be different from Serve America
Movement -

 http://joinsam.org/

Other organizations hoping to overcome partisan
divisiveness -

 https://www.nolabels.org/

 https://www.uniteamerica.org/

And hopefully they will all build on what's already
started -

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Problem_Solvers_Caucus

=====

impact 34
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title Young veterans try to re-invigorate Congress -
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wordrate 0
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ID 679358519075337
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posted "07/31/2018 06:37:34 PM"
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==========


Constitutional localism

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/30/opinion/third-party-2020-election-localism.html

And here's the opposite - local elections decided by Fox
News -

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/30/us/politics/florida-governor-election.html

=====

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ID 678278405850015
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posted "07/30/2018 06:59:13 PM"
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==========


Two glimpses of the future - which one will prove true?

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/29/opinion/columnists/trump-loss-re-election-2020.html

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/26/opinion/trump-re-election-2020.html

Now consider: what happens if the economic recovery ends
before the election vs after the election?

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/theory.html#cycle

=====

impact 22
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posted "07/29/2018 05:13:01 PM"
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==========


Millenials - it's up to you!

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/26/opinion/sunday/democracy-democrats-voters-disenfranchisment.html

Show up and vote, get the dark money out of politics, the
politics out of redistricting, get ranked choice voting
and multimember districts, remove obstacles to independent
and third-party candidates, change laws to support rather
than suppress voter registration and voting... in short,
support democracy rather than partisanship.

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/democracy.html

=====

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posted "07/27/2018 07:25:13 AM"
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==========


Republican Party has become Trump Party

If Boehner says it, believe it!

 https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2018/05/31/former-speaker-john-boehner-criticizes-republican-party/661544002/

In the future, will all parties claim to be Trumpistas?

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peronism

=====

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posted "06/01/2018 07:31:05 AM"
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==========


"Some things are true even if Trump believes them

so Democrats still have to connect with some centrist
and conservative voters.  but then take them in a
constructive direction, in contrast with Trump's
destructive direction."

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/29/opinion/midterms-trump-democrats.html

=====

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posted "05/30/2018 05:40:34 PM"
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==========


The kind of Republican we need - for a blue November

 https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/21/don-blankenship-third-party-constitution-party-600779

Can he get past WV's sore loser law?

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sore-loser_law

 https://www.hbs.edu/competitiveness/Documents/why-competition-in-the-politics-industry-is-failing-america.pdf

Preferential voting would avoid some problems with the
primary/general election duality:

 https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/609501779394345

=====

impact 12
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posted "05/22/2018 12:47:27 PM"
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==========


Can Democrats ever address the Trump base?

Have Democrats been wasting their time trying to figure
out how to objectively improve the lives of the Trump base?

Fears of cultural displacement pushed the white working
class to Trump; status threat, not economic hardship,
explains the 2016 presidential vote.  Polarization is
driven by a team sport mentality, not by disagreement
on issues.

So undoing the billionaire tax relief, saving social
security and medicare, funding retraining and relocation
is just wasted effort as far as these voters are
concerned... just deport all the people that look or act
different and tariff imports out of existence and they'll
be happy, even if they are worse off economically?

Perhaps there is a hard core of latent National Socialist
Workers Partiers and Klansmen beyond the bunch that showed
up at Charlottesville.    But they are not a base that
Democrats can build on.    The Republicans leaders know
they need to have them in their coalition, even though
they are (hopefully) a minority in that coalition.

So which Republican voters in 2016 might be persuadable
in 2018?

How about:

all the women who've noticed that the Republicans don't
seem to have a problem with sexual harassment

all the persons of color, and immigrants, and
non-Christians, and persons of unconventional sexual
orientation, who've noticed that the Republicans seem to
be much more interested in catering to that white, male,
native, conservative Christian, straight base than catering
to anybody else

all the youth who've noticed that the Republicans seem
to be much more interested in protecting their right to
shoot up schools than the students' right to survive

all the traditional conservatives who have noticed that the
Republicans are worse than ever in saying one thing and
doing another, and the things that they do are actively
undermining the basis of stable American democracy and
stable world order, substituting tribalism for principle,
and fascism and kleptocracy for the best American political
traditions.

So in addition to their traditional issues, Democrat
candidates need to embrace some additional points of view,
get some new people in the big tent, avoid exclusionary
ideological litmus tests, and not waste this historic
opportunity that Trump has handed them.

Ideological Republicans and Democrats alike are skilled
at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.    In 2018,
let the Republicans have that role.

For links to references, please see

 https://www.facebook.com/politicalscrapbooknet/posts/613892965621893

=====

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==========


Unelectable candidates are a gift to the opposition

Unelectable Republican candidates are a gift to the
Democrats... and vice versa.    When Democrats nominate
unelectable candidates in contestable elections,
Republicans breathe sighs of relief.

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2018/05/16/daily-202-the-far-left-is-winning-the-democratic-civil-war/5afb5fe230fb042588799528/

In contestable elections, successful candidates are not
going to get to far to the right or left of the median
voter in the district.

In uncontestable elections, where one party is certain
to win, the other party can work toward a better future
by nominating whoever can convincingly articulate the
platform.

Another approach is to avoid primaries altogether with
preferential voting.  Every member of every party can
rank all the candidates by preference, so all candidates
have an incentive to seek broad support beyond their own
party's ideological base.

 http://www.fairvote.org/

=====

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posted "05/17/2018 09:55:35 PM"
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==========


What's the Democratic platform for 2018 and 2020?

Many would-be presidents have been trying out ideas about
future campaign principles:

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/hey-democrats-whats-the-big-idea/2018/05/15/daab0926-5880-11e8-858f-12becb4d6067_story.html

Bernie Sanders says it's all about income and wealth
inequality, bad and becoming worse, and that seems
plausible enough.  Gross economic inequality has pervasive
consequences, eventually rendering equal economic
opportunity unattainable:

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/18/opinion/wealth-inequality-families-children-elderly.html

The Center for American Progress has a new proposed
comprehensive platform for jobs and communities:

 https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/reports/2018/05/14/450856/blueprint-21st-century/

which should benefit everybody who's been left behind in
various ways.

"There are 435 House contests, and obviously no
cookie-cutter candidate or campaign will suit all of
them:"

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/democrats-have-it-too-good-to-shoot-themselves-in-the-foot/2018/05/17/a80d1d0c-5a0a-11e8-858f-12becb4d6067_story.html

The fly in the ointment is figuring out who's going to
pay; it's usually supposed to be "people richer
than me:"

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/democrats-are-about-to-have-to-pay-up/2018/05/15/b7638b54-5877-11e8-858f-12becb4d6067_story.html

But even in California, social liberals turn out to be
fiscal conservatives if it's their taxes going up.

The best way to focus everybody's attention on the
tradeoffs here is to insure that every expenditure has
an immediate tax increase to fund it, and every tax cut
requires an immediate program cut to fund it.

 http://www.one-flat-tax.net/

=====

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posted "05/15/2018 08:53:28 PM"
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type Link

==========


The Most Ideological Candidate WHO CAN WIN

E. J.Dionne Jr. has written an interesting piece recalling
identical political advice from both Barney Frank and
William F. Buckley Jr. - in the primaries, support the
most radical candidate who can win in the general election.

 https://r.com.pk/e-j-dionne-the-principle-behind-anti-trump-pragmatism/

Both were more interested in making laws rather than making
ideological points, and to make (or repeal) laws you need
to have majorities in legislatures.    Both Republican and
Democratic strategists have been known to quietly fund the
fringe candidates in the other party's primary in order
to have a more beatable opponent in the general election.
And now we know that the Russian propaganda machinery also
has an interest in quietly fanning extreme ideological
partisanship.

When it's your turn to participate in primary season, do
your best to determine which of your party's candidates
has the best chance against the best of the other party's.
That's not necessarily the same as the one you might
prefer in a perfect world.  Particularly in a contestable
district, a successful candidate should not be too far
ahead ideologically of the median voter of the district.

Things might be easier if elections were conducted with
preferential voting:

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/democracy.html#preferential

Then as many candidates could run as wanted, and as many
parties compete as wanted, without anybody diluting anybody
else's chances, and with a higher probability that the
final winner represents the broadest possible consensus
in the district.

What about in districts where it's a foregone conclusion
which party is going to win?    What should the other
party do there?     In that case, since no candidate
is electable, then the minority party might as well act
like the Libertarians and Greens and nominate the most
articulate exponent of the minority party's principles.
Here the purpose of running is to plant seeds in the mind
of the majority voters that might bear fruit in the future.

home/oakapple/political/posts

=====

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==========


Which is the dog and which is the tail?

Or what is the base, and what is the pinnacle?

Blankenship ran third, but...  Trumpism will outlast Trump
(and Blankenship)
 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-west-virginia-primary-shows-trumps-election-was-no-aberration/2018/05/07/7caf4856-523a-11e8-9c91-7dab596e8252_story.html

Trump ran on disrupting the Obama establishment...
Blankenship ran on disrupting the Trump establishment
 https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/gop-on-edge-as-west-virginia-considers-senate-bid-of-controversial-coal-baron/2018/05/07/ea4d6f1e-5230-11e8-abd8-265bd07a9859_story.html

Blankenship was too extreme for Trump
 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-urges-west-virginia-gop-voters-to-reject-blankenship-in-favor-of-more-mainstream-gop-hopefuls/2018/05/07/9a3b4d5a-51dd-11e8-abd8-265bd07a9859_story.html

But what if he is Trumpier than Trump?
 https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/gop-primaries-gauge-the-anti-establishment-fervor-trump-helped-unleash/2018/05/07/d0b50338-5216-11e8-abd8-265bd07a9859_story.html

What does the Trump base really want?

You can't separate money from culture
 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/06/opinion/trump-supporters-economy-racism.html

 https://www.prri.org/research/white-working-class-attitudes-economy-trade-immigration-election-donald-trump/

 http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/04/18/1718155115

 https://academic.oup.com/poq/article/82/suppl_1/280/4951269?guestAccessKey=ccb478a8-84ee-4dda-ae29-b3ffde16f893

 https://theintercept.com/2018/04/03/politics-liberal-democrat-conservative-republican/

Are all Trump voters in 2016 deplorable?
 http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/opn-columns-blogs/leonard-pitts-jr/article209844134.html

No... just the ones who wish Trump would shoot somebody
on Fifth Ave:
 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#First%20Trump%20Constituency

Just some of them...
 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#Second%20Trump%20Constituency

=====

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==========


Mail-in ballots go out to California voters

"The ongoing battles between California and the
Trump administration, as well as an outburst of anti-
and pro-Trump political activism, could actually boost
turnout in the Golden State this year"

So responding to Trump with increased turnout is a good
thing?

 https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/05/07/california-mail-in-ballot-june-primary-governor-senate/

"Xavier Becerra was plucked from Congress to lead
California's opposition to all things Donald Trump. He'ss
done that as state attorney general, with a litany
of lawsuits over policies involving immigration, the
environment, birth control and health care.  His opponents
in the June 5 primary say he's so focused on the Republican
president that he's falling down on other key areas of
the job."

So responding to Trump in court is a bad thing?

 https://apnews.com/398b0ea81bc84239a22c91350b721fab

At least Becerra doesn't have a MeToo problem like that
other blue-state attorney general.   Other candidates are
not so clean:

 https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/may/5/metoo-gas-tax-roil-california-primary-legislative-/

And then there's the gas tax increase.    How could anybody
be for a tax increase?

 https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/05/02/nearly-400-miles-of-san-jose-road-are-in-bad-shape/
 https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/04/30/gas-tax-repeal-heading-for-the-november-ballot-campaign-says/
 https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/04/16/california-travis-allen-gas-tax-repeal-ads/

But how could anybody be for traffic jams and potholes?
California Republicans are for them: without them,
no gas tax increase, and thus no issue to drive their
demoralized faithful to the polls.  But what's the point
when the California Republican faithful attending their
state convention couldn't agree on endorsing a single
candidate for either governor or US senator?

And do what you can to help the California 7 enjoy an
early retirement -

 https://www.ca7project.com/

and Nunes and McCarthy too.

=====

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==========


Can Democrats ever address the Trump base?

Have Democrats been wasting their time trying to figure
out how to objectively improve the lives of the Trump base?

Fears of Cultural Displacement Pushed the White Working
Class to Trump:

 https://www.prri.org/research/white-working-class-attitudes-economy-trade-immigration-election-donald-trump/

Status threat, not economic hardship, explains the 2016
presidential vote:

 http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/04/18/1718155115

Fears of Cultural Displacement Pushed the White Working
Class to Trump:

 https://www.prri.org/research/white-working-class-attitudes-economy-trade-immigration-election-donald-trump/

Polarization is driven by a team sport mentality, not by
disagreement on issues:

 https://theintercept.com/2018/04/03/politics-liberal-democrat-conservative-republican/

 https://academic.oup.com/poq/article/82/suppl_1/280/4951269?guestAccessKey=ccb478a8-84ee-4dda-ae29-b3ffde16f893

So undoing the billionaire tax relief, saving social
security and medicare, funding retraining and relocation
is just wasted effort as far as these voters are
concerned... just deport all the people that look or act
different and tariff imports out of existence and they'll
be happy, even if they are worse off economically?

Perhaps there is a hard core of latent National Socialist
Workers Partiers and Klansmen beyond the bunch that showed
up at Charlottesville.    But they are not a base that
Democrats can build on.    The Republicans leaders know
they need to have them in their coalition, even though
they are (hopefully) a minority in that coalition.

So which Republican voters in 2016 might be persuadable
in 2018?

How about:

all the women who've noticed that the Republicans don't
seem to have a problem with sexual harassment

all the persons of color, and immigrants, and
non-Christians, and persons of unconventional sexual
orientation, who've noticed that the Republicans seem to
be much more interested in catering to that white, male,
native, conservative Christian, straight base than catering
to anybody else

all the youth who've noticed that the Republicans seem
to be much more interested in protecting their right to
shoot up schools than the students' right to survive

all the traditional conservatives who have noticed that the
Republicans are worse than ever in saying one thing and
doing another, and the things that they do are actively
undermining the basis of stable American democracy and
stable world order, substituting tribalism for principle,
and fascism and kleptocracy for the best American political
traditions.

So in addition to their traditional issues, Democrat
candidates need to embrace some additional points of view,
get some new people in the big tent, avoid exclusionary
ideological litmus tests, and not waste this historic
opportunity that Trump has handed them.

Ideological Republicans and Democrats alike are skilled
at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.    In 2018,
let the Republicans have that role.  historic opportunity

=====

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==========


Republican candidates move closer to the president

The Republican Party is now the Trumpist Party - what
should Democrats do?

How many candidates can proudly position themselves as
Trumpier than Trump?

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/26/us/don-blankenship-west-virginia-senate.html

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/22/us/politics/trump-republican-party.html

 https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/03/boycott-the-gop/550907/

It should be an opportunity for Democrats, but even in
California issues have to be chosen carefully:

 https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/04/23/california-cities-are-rebelling-against-state-sanctuary-law-but-how-far-can-they-go/

And the Republicans might do better in November than
special elections suggest:

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/03/opinion/republicans-midterms-special-elections.html

What should Democrats be talking about instead?  There's
some evidence that proposing and debating ideas that
would actually improve the economic conditions of Trump
supporters is a waste of time:

 https://theintercept.com/2018/04/03/politics-liberal-democrat-conservative-republican/

But still there are plenty of those ideas in circulation:

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/13/opinion/sunday/trump-republican-new-deal.html

such as

 https://democracyjournal.org/magazine/44/youre-hired/

 https://www.americanprogressaction.org/issues/economy/reports/2018/04/17/169879/working-class-push-progressive-economic-policies/

 https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/reports/2017/05/16/432499/toward-marshall-plan-america/

Not all these ideas will be good policy at first, but they
have to be debated to get better.

Bartels at Vanderbilt reports that a majority of
Republicans support an active government role in social
welfare - contrary to the Libertarian line of many
"establishment" Republicans but in line with
Trump's campaign promise not to touch Social Security
and Medicare:

Could any of this actually happen despite the institutional
duopoly resistance to compromise?  It would have to happen
without Trump's involvement, since he is most dogmatic
about his worst ideas and most inept at getting his other
ideas through Congress.    And since so many Republican
legislators running in 2018 seem to define their ideology
by whatever Trump is for, they are fully occupied trying
to keep up with him instead of solving real problems for
their base.

If there are any Republicans who want to be identifiable
as something more constructive than Trumpists, time is
running out for them to come up with a credible Plan B
for solving real problems.

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/theory.html#conservative

=====

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==========


Democratic Strategy in 2018

Renounce Nancy Pelosi, Ignore Donald Trump - and Win?

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/12/opinion/mccready-north-carolina-lamb.html

How does the national Democratic party and its donors
decide who to encourage and who to discourage?     One
wants to fund plausible winners, but who can say for sure
who they are?  Everybody has an idea:

 https://theintercept.com/2018/01/23/dccc-democratic-primaries-congress-progressives/

Better Biden?
 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/27/opinion/to-beat-trump-build-a-better-biden.html

Even a Tea Party founder has given up on Trump; what could
Democrats do to help?
 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/27/opinion/mick-mulvaney-trump-swamp.html

What works in urban California does not work the same way
in rural California.    Democrats who hope to help retire
the California Seven:

 https://www.ca7project.com/

have to recognize that and not get too far ahead of the
median in their district:

 https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/04/23/california-cities-are-rebelling-against-state-sanctuary-law-but-how-far-can-they-go/

So it's not clear what's going to work best, so it might
be best to try lots of things.    A problem with that,
in California, is that the way primaries work, everybody
can run, but only the two highest vote getters go on to the
general election.    Often this means the general election
is between two Democrats or between two Republicans.
The idea was to let everybody vote on the two choices -
but there's a problem.     What if party A has 60% of the
vote but 10 candidates, while party B has 40% of the vote
but only 2 candidates.     The general election will be
between party B's candidates, and the 60% of party A is
cut out.     Hence the effort by national committees to
weed out as many primary candidates as possible.

But there is another solution - using preferential voting.
As many candidates from as many parties as possible can
run, and no votes or candidates are wasted:

 http://www.fairvote.org/

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/democracy.html#preferential

=====

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==========


Republican Strategy in 2018

Republican Congressional leadership is worried that Trump
does not appreciate the trouble that the Republicans have
gotten into:

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/28/us/politics/trump-midterm-elections.html

He thinks he can bluster his way out of trouble the same
way he always has; It doesn't have to be true if you can
convince people it could have been true.

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/28/opinion/sunday/why-trump-supporters-dont-mind-his-lies.html

Would the left-behind Americans in the fly-over states
really want to compete in the economic world of the
coastal elites?    Presumably those that would, have
already retrained and relocated.     Would those who are
left in the middle want the congestion and stratospheric
cost of living to come to where they live now?

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/trump.html#First%20Trump%20Constituency

=====

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==========


Is Tribe more important than Ideas?

Have Democrats been wasting their time trying to figure
out how to objectively improve the lives of the Trump base?

 https://theintercept.com/2018/04/03/politics-liberal-democrat-conservative-republican/

Here's the full study by Lilliana Mason:

 https://academic.oup.com/poq/article/82/suppl_1/280/4951269?guestAccessKey=ccb478a8-84ee-4dda-ae29-b3ffde16f893

ABSTRACT

The distinction between a person's ideological identity and
their issue positions has come more clearly into focus in
recent research. Scholars have pointed out a significant
difference between identity-based and issue-based ideology
in the American electorate. However, the affective and
social effects of these separate elements of ideology
have not been sufficiently explored. Drawing on a national
sample collected by SSI and data from the 2016 ANES, this
article finds that the identity-based elements of ideology
are capable of driving heightened levels of affective
polarization against outgroup ideologues, even at low
levels of policy attitude extremity or constraint. These
findings demonstrate how Americans can use ideological
terms to disparage political opponents without necessarily
holding constrained sets of policy attitudes.

Unite America reports:

Groundbreaking new research suggests that one's political
identity matters more than one's issue-based ideology in
explaining the deepening divisions of American politics.

The University of Maryland's Lilliana Mason found that
how strongly one affiliates with a given team - be it
liberal or conservative - is more predictive of how they
feel about the other team than what they actually believe
on any set of issues. (You can read the full study here.)

Mason explains the consequences: If policy outcomes are
less important than team victory, a policy compromise is
a useless concession to the enemy.

These findings underscore the importance of our work in
creating a movement of Uniters who can put their labels
aside and put our country first.

 https://www.uniteamerica.org/

=====

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==========


Repeat: Do not act like Republicans in the primaries!

At this rate they won't have any more feet to shoot
themselves in.  It's hard to run for office on two
wounded feet.

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/razor-thin-senate-majority-bloody-primary-fights-hamstring-gop/2018/04/19/072b674a-43e4-11e8-8569-26fda6b404c7_story.html

E. J.Dionne Jr. wrote an interesting piece recalling
identical political advice from both Barney Frank and
William F. Buckley Jr. - in the primaries, support the
most radical candidate who can win in the general election.

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/against-trump-pragmatism-and-principle-might-be-the-same-thing/2018/03/18/9d9c65a2-2955-11e8-b79d-f3d931db7f68_story.html

Both were more interested in making laws rather than making
ideological points, and to make (or repeal) laws you need
to have majorities in legislatures.    Both Republican and
Democratic strategists have been known to quietly fund the
fringe candidates in the other party's primary in order
to have a more beatable opponent in the general election.
And now we know that the Russian propaganda machinery also
has an interest in quietly fanning extreme ideological
partisanship.

So when it's your turn to participate in primary season,
you do your best to determine which of your party's
candidates has the best chance against the best of the
other party's.     That's not necessarily the same as the
one you might prefer in a perfect world.  Particularly in
a contestable district, a successful candidate should
not be too far ahead ideologically of the median voter of
the district.

What about in districts where it's a foregone conclusion
which party is going to win?    What should the other
party do there?     In that case, since no candidate
is electable, then the minority party might as well act
like the Libertarians and Greens and nominate the most
articulate exponent of the minority party's principles.
Here the purpose of running is to plant seeds in the mind
of the majority voters that might bear fruit in the future.

Things might be easier if elections were conducted with
preferential voting as advocated by

 http://www.fairvote.org/

Then as many candidates could run as wanted, and as many
parties compete as wanted, without anybody diluting anybody
else's chances, and with a higher probability that the
final winner represents the broadest possible consensus
in the district.

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/democracy.html#preferential

=====

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title Repeat: Do not act like Republicans in the primaries!
topic election
wordrate 0
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ID 607500139594509
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==========


"Impeach Trump" might be the wrong battle cry
in 2018

 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/22/opinion/trump-impeachement-america.html

According to an NPR/PBS/Marist poll:

47 percent of registered voters would definitely vote
against a candidate who wanted to remove Trump from office,
while 42 percent would definitely vote for a candidate
who would make such a promise.  47 percent of independent
voters - whose opinions could be decisive - also say they
would vote against candidates favoring impeachment:

 https://www.npr.org/2018/04/18/603408469/npr-pbs-newshour-marist-poll-pushing-impeachment-would-backfire-on-democrats-in

According to Jennifer Rubin:

Rather than the "I" word (impeachment), Democrats
would be wise to make this about the "A"
word (accountability).  And accountability begins with
transparency and fact-finding.

A Haas poll shows that even in California, some Trump
policies have significant support:

 https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/04/18/half-of-californians-support-deportations-muslim-travel-ban-survey-finds/

Both polls note that the electorate seems to be comfortable
holding contradictory views of things.     Remember most
voters think about politics a lot less than you do!

=====

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==========


Don't make it easier for the Republicans to retain control
of Congress!

Democrats should leave this sort of thing to the Tea Party:

 https://www.wsj.com/articles/you-wont-believe-the-names-the-left-is-calling-no-labels-1523209037

a Wall Street Journal op-ed written by principals at
No Labels:

 https://www.nolabels.org/

Situations like these cry out for preferential voting:

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/democracy.html#preferential

and related reforms advocated by FairVote:

 http://www.fairvote.org/

that would make it more likely that the candidate with
the broadest support in the district would win.

If you're not a WSJ subscriber, you would not be able to
read the op-ed, so here it is:

=====

You Won't Believe the Names the Left Is Calling 'No Labels'

Our support for a Democratic lawmaker drew obscenities and
accusations of bigotry.  By Margaret Kimbrell White and
Sasha Borowsky April 8, 2018 Ms. White and Ms. Borowsky
are, respectively, senior adviser and chief of staff at
No Labels.

For an object lesson in how venomous American politics
has become, look no further than the insults hurled in
our direction late last month. We're two millennial women
who work at No Labels, a political reform movement founded
in 2010 featuring Democrats, Republicans and independents
working together to solve America's toughest problems. In
March, No Labels organized in support of Rep. Dan Lipinski,
a moderate Democrat from Illinois whose primary challenger
had been endorsed by a host of liberal interest groups.

After Mr. Lipinski narrowly won, the president of Naral
Pro-Choice America, Ilyse Hogue, accused No Labels of
following President Trump into "bigotry."
When our group tweeted that Mr. Lipinski's victory
showed "America's political center is finally
striking back," Howard Dean, a former chairman of
the Democratic National Committee, replied: "This
is foolish nonsense." Former Obama speechwriter Jon
Favreau complained that Mr. Lipinski had also voted against
the Affordable Care Act and opposed same-sex marriage:
"To call people who disagree with those positions
the far left is a f------ embarrassment."

We don't agree with Mr. Lipinski on every issue
either. (Hey, Ms. Hogue, turns out we're pro-choice,
too.) But Mr. Lipinski still votes with his party 88%
of the time. That hardly makes him a turncoat. Moreover,
we think there's a bigger problem in Washington than
whether Mr. Lipinski passes any given group's political
litmus test.

Legislators in both parties have to worry too much about
primary challenges from ideologues on the far left or
far right. That's why Democrats and Republicans are so
unwilling to work across the aisle. And that in turn is
why Congress is failing to address the biggest problems
facing America.

Here's a specific example. When the individual insurance
market almost imploded last year, the far left (which wants
a single-payer system) and the far right (which would
be happy enough to watch ObamaCare's exchanges collapse
entirely) went straight to their respective ideological
corners. They ignored the concerns of the ordinary
Americans who stood to lose their medical coverage.

Dan Lipinski was one of the few in Congress determined to
do something realistic to fix the problem. He worked out
an agreement with a handful of his counterparts in the
bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus to help these Americans
keep their insurance coverage and provide relief for small
businesses. To this day, this is the only bipartisan
health-care plan this Congress has proposed. It is the
framework for a deal struck in the Senate last October.

You may argue that a lawmaker's position on your favorite
social issue is more important than his overall approach
to governing. We don't agree - but we also won't call you
names or dismiss you out of hand. Is asking that our view
also be respected too much to ask? When Mr. Lipinski won,
did liberals really need to vent their anger on Twitter
by calling No Labels foolish, embarrassing bigots?

Belittling our group won't convince anyone. Although the
two of us don't share Dan Lipinski's views on abortion,
his victory improves the chances that Congress may actually
get something done for the American people. Many voters,
like us, see the value in reaching across the aisle - and
we aren't going to be silenced, as the Illinois primary
last month illustrates. Call us names, roll your eyes,
encourage others to write us off. But understand this: We
mean to fight back. We're strong and we're resilient. Like
your hero Elizabeth Warren, we will persist.

=====

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==========


Reproductive Rights, #MeToo, and the 2018 primaries

There are a large number of conservative religious
immigrant women who are appalled by Trumpism's blatant
endorsement of sexual abuse and immigrant abuse.  Yet the
feel obliged - by their own convictions as well as external
reinforcement in their community - that the number one
issue in this or any election is sanctity of life, so in
an election they vote for whoever is loudest in attacking
reproductive rights.

In a contestable district with lots of conservative women,
progressives should think carefully about how they vote
in the Democratic primary.    The Democratic hopeful most
closely aligned with their ideals might have the least
chance of prevailing in the general election against a
Republican who is loudly and proudly against abortion.
A Democratic candidate who is closer to the median of the
district on this issue might have a better chance of moving
the conversation toward other issues.

Single-issue voters and single-issue candidates have been
a bane of democracy forever, though eclipsed somewhat
in recent years by narrowcasting cable tv and social
media, and by dark big money enabled by Citizens United.
One can only hope that the daughters of these conservative
women will come around to a different point of view on
reproductive rights.

Restrictions on abortion might not seem so bad, if
there were a way to do so that reduced the freedom
of rich and poor alike, and the freedom of men and
women alike.  But nobody's ever thought of a credible
way to do that.   50 years ago, if a rich man's daughter
became pregnant, he just sent her to Denmark to take care
of it.     If abortion became illegal again in the USA,
you wouldn't have to be quite as rich to go to Canada,
but that solution would still be out of reach for some,
especially for young poor women.  So once again abortion
would be illegal and unsafe.  Money buys a lot of freedom
- for the rich.  Gross income inequality implies gross
freedom inequality.  Debates about abortion vs reproductive
rights are ultimately about money, not morality.

Most women, if they have the knowledge and the means,
would like to limit their family size.    So in modern
industrial society get them the knowledge and the means
and birth rates go down.

When our fabulously wealthy society is not doing a very
good job educating the wanted poor children we have, who
would be interested in having more unwanted poor children?
The book The Chalice and the Blade clarifies the roots of
the issue.

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Chalice_and_the_Blade

Unwanted boys, seeking acceptance or belonging, are good
recruits for soldiers as cannon fodder, or suicidal
terrorists.  Unwanted girls, seeking acceptance or
belonging, are likely to produce more unwanted boys and
girls.  So in a patriarchal, hierarchical, or militaristic
society, there's no such thing as an unwanted poor
child, at least as far as the ruling class is concerned.
That's why militaristic dictatorships like bachelor
taxes and incentives for childbearing.    In addition,
every major religious tradition has fanatical sects who
believe (at least the men) that it is their sacred duty
to "win" by outbreeding the opposition.

=====

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==========


The Most ... Candidate WHO CAN WIN

E. J.Dionne Jr. has written an interesting piece recalling
identical political advice from both Barney Frank and
William F. Buckley Jr. - in the primaries, support the
most radical candidate who can win in the general election.

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/against-trump-pragmatism-and-principle-might-be-the-same-thing/2018/03/18/9d9c65a2-2955-11e8-b79d-f3d931db7f68_story.html

Both were more interested in making laws rather than making
ideological points, and to make (or repeal) laws you need
to have majorities in legislatures.    Both Republican and
Democratic strategists have been known to quietly fund the
fringe candidates in the other party's primary in order
to have a more beatable opponent in the general election.
And now we know that the Russian propaganda machinery also
has an interest in quietly fanning extreme ideological
partisanship.

So I'd suggest that when it's your turn to participate
in primary season, you do your best to determine which
of your party's candidates has the best chance against
the best of the other party's.     That's not necessarily
the same as the one you might prefer in a perfect world.
Particularly in a contestable district, a successful
candidate should not be too far ahead ideologically of
the median voter of the district.

Things might be easier if elections were conducted with
preferential voting:

 http://www.political-scrapbook.net/democracy.html#preferential

Then as many candidates could run as wanted, and as many
parties compete as wanted, without anybody diluting anybody
else's chances, and with a higher probability that the
final winner represents the broadest possible consensus
in the district.

What about in districts where it's a foregone conclusion
which party is going to win?    What should the other
party do there?     In that case, since no candidate
is electable, then the minority party might as well act
like the Libertarians and Greens and nominate the most
articulate exponent of the minority party's principles.
Here the purpose of running is to plant seeds in the mind
of the majority voters that might bear fruit in the future.

=====

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